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Oil (vegetable) in Bururi

Bururi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 4% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

11,930–17,268

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,139–19,594

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,930 and 17,268 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,139 and 19,594 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Bururi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 4% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,930 and 17,268 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,139 and 19,594 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 28,666); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,679–15,693 14,214 11,729–17,576 14,349 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,702–17,267 14,594 12,320–19,497 16,658 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 11,930–17,268 14,116 11,582–23,475 14,887 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,330–18,317 14,438 10,722–23,936 15,519 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,139–19,594 14,651 10,977–28,666 16,249 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,833
Jul 202615,000
Jun 202614,391
May 202615,176
Apr 202616,000
Mar 202615,067
Feb 202615,738
Jan 202614,569
Dec 202514,353
Nov 202517,240
Oct 202519,676
Sept 202517,562
Aug 202518,167
Jul 202518,026
Jun 202517,562
May 202517,431
Apr 202517,125
Mar 202517,354
Feb 202513,857
Jan 202511,743
Dec 202410,294
Nov 202410,312
Oct 202411,778
Sept 202410,467
Aug 202410,647
Jul 20249,979
Jun 202410,542
May 20249,667
Apr 20248,500
Mar 20248,799
Feb 20248,864
Jan 20249,000
Dec 20239,000
Nov 20239,500
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20239,000
Aug 20239,000
Jul 20239,750
Jun 202310,591
May 20239,892
Apr 20239,583
Mar 20239,250
Feb 20238,417
Jan 20238,333
Dec 20229,500
Nov 20228,778
Oct 20227,700
Sept 20228,422
Aug 20228,500
May 20227,000
Mar 20226,500
Feb 20226,500
Jan 20226,500
Sept 20215,000
May 20216,500
Apr 20216,500
Mar 20214,500
Feb 20216,250
Jan 20216,500
Dec 20204,750
Nov 20203,500
Sept 20203,500
Aug 20204,500
Jul 20206,000
Jun 20205,500
Mar 20204,500
Feb 20206,000
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20194,833
Nov 20194,214
Oct 20194,700
Sept 20194,583
Aug 20195,167
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,000
May 20194,833
Mar 20194,083
Feb 20195,125
Jan 20195,400
Dec 20185,800
Nov 20185,750
Oct 20185,625
Sept 20185,700
Aug 20185,083
Jul 20185,400
Jun 20186,000
May 20185,700
Apr 20185,700
Mar 20185,600
Feb 20186,500
Jan 20185,833

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2427-96-retail-kg.