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Oil (palm) in Busoni

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 17% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,983–11,183

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,776–12,246

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,983 and 11,183 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,776 and 12,246 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Busoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 17% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,983 and 11,183 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,776 and 12,246 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,507); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,417–10,594 9,137 8,187–11,223 11,162 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,063–10,619 8,848 7,605–14,111 10,421 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,983–11,183 8,642 7,159–15,038 9,952 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,869–11,739 8,699 7,269–15,821 10,112 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,776–12,246 8,836 6,751–18,507 10,407 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,500
Jun 20269,625
May 20269,444
Apr 20268,750
Mar 20268,944
Feb 20268,946
Jan 20269,052
Dec 20259,271
Nov 20259,351
Oct 202510,294
Sept 202511,125
Aug 202511,000
Jul 202512,179
Jun 202511,183
May 202511,125
Apr 202512,000
Mar 202511,132
Feb 20258,238
Jan 20257,939
Dec 20246,656
Nov 20246,360
Oct 20246,333
Sept 20246,278
Aug 20246,926
Jul 20247,000
Jun 20246,620
May 20246,611
Apr 20246,333
Mar 20246,165
Feb 20246,000
Jan 20245,794
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20235,900
Oct 20236,919
Sept 20237,381
Aug 20238,000
Jul 20235,575
Jun 20235,922
May 20235,481
Apr 20235,112
Mar 20234,753
Feb 20234,687
Dec 20224,767
Nov 20224,485
Oct 20224,800
Sept 20225,000
Aug 20225,175
Jul 20225,100
Jun 20225,000
May 20225,219
Apr 20224,267
Mar 20224,000
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20223,825
Oct 20213,800
May 20213,200
Apr 20212,925
Mar 20212,800
Feb 20212,700
Jan 20212,733
Dec 20202,511
Nov 20202,533
Oct 20202,800
Sept 20202,683
Aug 20202,788
Jul 20202,749
Jun 20202,833
Mar 20202,800
Feb 20202,683
Jan 20202,533
Dec 20192,717
Nov 20192,733
Oct 20192,450
Sept 20193,033
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,067
Jun 20193,000
May 20192,950
Mar 20192,350
Feb 20192,317
Jan 20192,300
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,371
Oct 20182,533
Sept 20182,750
Aug 20183,033
Jul 20183,067
Jun 20183,100
May 20182,900
Apr 20182,700
Mar 20182,560
Feb 20182,000
Jan 20182,144

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2428-62-retail-kg.