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Cassava flour in Busoni

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,242–2,040

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,258–2,191

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,242 and 2,040 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,258 and 2,191 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Busoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,242 and 2,040 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,258 and 2,191 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,574); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,339–1,700 1,508 1,310–1,886 1,612 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,266–1,816 1,498 1,214–2,232 1,584 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,242–2,040 1,491 1,185–2,868 1,768 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,207–2,092 1,486 1,166–3,385 1,649 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,258–2,191 1,512 1,181–3,574 1,684 –
Price history (106 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,600
Jun 20261,575
May 20261,556
Apr 20261,650
Mar 20261,528
Feb 20261,520
Jan 20261,398
Dec 20251,267
Nov 20251,411
Oct 20251,399
Sept 20251,538
Aug 20251,750
Jul 20252,159
Jun 20251,854
May 20251,477
Apr 20251,565
Mar 20251,469
Feb 20251,452
Jan 20251,411
Dec 20241,500
Nov 20241,500
Oct 20241,583
Sept 20241,382
Aug 20241,704
Jul 20241,658
Jun 20241,909
May 20242,039
Apr 20242,000
Mar 20241,910
Feb 20241,848
Jan 20241,779
Dec 20231,750
Nov 20231,750
Oct 20231,632
Sept 20231,704
Aug 20231,650
Jul 20231,575
Jun 20231,961
May 20232,090
Apr 20232,125
Mar 20231,859
Feb 20231,696
Dec 20221,322
Nov 20221,194
Oct 20221,150
Sept 20221,221
Aug 20221,200
Jul 20221,250
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,258
Apr 20221,200
Mar 20221,188
Feb 20221,155
Jan 20221,188
Oct 20211,000
May 20211,200
Apr 20211,142
Mar 20211,200
Feb 20211,100
Jan 20211,100
Dec 2020967
Nov 2020858
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020707
Aug 2020762
Jul 2020764
Jun 2020906
Mar 2020667
Feb 2020650
Jan 2020633
Dec 2019567
Oct 2019550
Aug 2019533
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019567
May 2019617
Mar 2019567
Feb 2019517
Jan 2019538
Dec 2018567
Nov 2018629
Oct 2018517
Sept 2018550
Aug 2018733
Jul 2018817
Jun 2018900
May 20181,000
Apr 20181,000
Mar 2018880
Feb 20181,000
Jan 2018939
Dec 20171,040
Nov 20171,183
Oct 20171,217
Sept 20171,200
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,167
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,400
Apr 20171,400
Mar 20171,400
Feb 20171,300
Jan 20171,300
Dec 20161,200
Nov 20161,115
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2428-74-retail-kg.