Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (vegetable) in Busoni

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 8% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,875–19,822

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,793–21,074

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,875 and 19,822 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,793 and 21,074 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Busoni: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 8% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,875 and 19,822 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,793 and 21,074 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,480); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,047–18,030 15,727 13,133–19,152 18,646 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,019–18,411 15,598 13,377–21,880 18,588 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,875–19,822 15,529 12,815–26,480 18,440 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,532–20,512 15,391 12,414–24,547 18,601 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,793–21,074 15,918 12,595–24,969 20,966 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,250
Jun 202616,000
May 202614,889
Apr 202616,250
Mar 202613,856
Feb 202615,554
Jan 202616,765
Dec 202517,562
Nov 202517,594
Oct 202517,877
Sept 202517,750
Aug 202517,500
Jul 202518,000
Jun 202517,952
May 202516,113
Apr 202517,481
Mar 202517,069
Feb 202516,841
Jan 202518,825
Dec 202413,517
Nov 202413,488
Oct 202412,750
Sept 202413,200
Aug 202411,722
Jul 202411,667
Jun 202410,272
May 202410,208
Apr 20248,833
Mar 20249,088
Feb 20248,690
Jan 20248,824
Dec 20239,000
Nov 20239,500
Oct 20239,470
Sept 20239,741
Aug 202310,000
Jul 20239,438
Jun 20239,056
May 20239,476
Apr 20239,375
Mar 20239,706
Feb 20239,304
Dec 20229,208
Nov 20228,985
Oct 20229,562
Sept 20229,530
Aug 20229,000
Jul 20229,000
Jun 20229,000
May 20228,854
Apr 20229,000
Mar 20227,954
Feb 20228,690
Jan 20229,788
Oct 20219,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20216,000
Mar 20216,000
Feb 20216,200
Jan 20215,792
Dec 20205,472
Nov 20205,208
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,350
Aug 20204,909
Jul 20203,418
Jun 20204,861
Mar 20204,583
Feb 20205,000
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,750
Nov 20194,583
Oct 20194,083
Sept 20194,583
Aug 20194,583
Jul 20194,550
Jun 20193,833
May 20194,500
Mar 20194,367
Feb 20194,467
Jan 20194,500
Dec 20184,667
Nov 20184,643
Oct 20184,583
Sept 20184,550
Aug 20184,433
Jul 20184,683
Jun 20185,133
May 20184,450
Apr 20184,300
Mar 20185,000
Feb 20183,700
Jan 20185,611

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2428-96-retail-kg.