Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Buyengero

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,867–11,131

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,333–12,279

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,867 and 11,131 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,333 and 12,279 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Buyengero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,867 and 11,131 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,333 and 12,279 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,510); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,078–9,964 8,570 6,534–10,935 8,792 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,493–9,682 8,074 6,259–11,540 8,002 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,867–11,131 8,526 5,735–15,863 8,710 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,426–10,956 8,158 6,100–17,653 8,229 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,333–12,279 8,337 6,122–26,510 8,552 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,750
Jun 20269,292
May 20269,865
Apr 20269,375
Mar 20269,583
Feb 20269,325
Jan 20268,652
Dec 20259,149
Nov 202510,312
Oct 20258,542
Sept 202510,442
Aug 202510,000
Jul 20259,000
Jun 202510,261
May 20259,562
Apr 20259,925
Mar 20258,758
Feb 20258,643
Jan 20255,519
Dec 20245,867
Nov 20245,667
Oct 20245,765
Sept 20245,289
Aug 20244,508
Jul 20246,000
Jun 20245,723
May 20245,177
Apr 20243,500
Mar 20244,250
Feb 20244,483
Jan 20244,882
Dec 20234,500
Nov 20235,050
Oct 20233,800
Sept 20234,697
Aug 20234,875
Jul 20235,050
Jun 20234,636
May 20234,412
Apr 20234,120
Mar 20234,349
Feb 20233,909
Dec 20224,000
Nov 20223,701
Oct 20223,447
Sept 20224,259
Aug 20223,581
May 20223,654
Apr 20223,367
Mar 20223,125
Feb 20223,100
Jan 20223,100
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20213,000
May 20212,500
Apr 20212,383
Mar 20212,183
Feb 20212,500
Jan 20212,350
Dec 20201,852
Nov 20202,220
Oct 20202,550
Sept 20202,282
Aug 20202,285
Jul 20202,224
Jun 20202,233
Mar 20202,133
Feb 20202,100
Jan 20202,250
Dec 20192,160
Nov 20192,340
Oct 20192,220
Sept 20192,383
Aug 20192,400
Jul 20192,583
Jun 20192,700
May 20192,457
Mar 20192,183
Feb 20192,750
Jan 20191,960
Dec 20181,933
Nov 20181,960
Oct 20181,750
Sept 20182,260
Aug 20182,800
Jul 20182,700
Jun 20182,583
May 20182,380
Apr 201811,750
Mar 20181,450
Feb 20181,600
Jan 20181,700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2429-62-retail-kg.