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Cassava flour in Buyengero

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,989–3,067

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,055–3,291

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,989 and 3,067 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,055 and 3,291 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Buyengero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,989 and 3,067 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,055 and 3,291 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,273); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 2,091–2,520 2,312 1,970–2,786 2,626 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 2,022–2,683 2,321 1,884–3,141 2,519 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,989–3,067 2,319 1,867–4,145 2,896 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,042–3,210 2,327 1,840–5,273 2,815 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,055–3,291 2,381 1,808–4,636 2,803 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,250
Jun 20262,442
May 20262,467
Apr 20262,300
Mar 20262,450
Feb 20262,500
Jan 20262,403
Dec 20252,226
Nov 20252,225
Oct 20252,282
Sept 20252,346
Aug 20252,367
Jul 20252,108
Jun 20252,220
May 20252,360
Apr 20252,415
Mar 20252,183
Feb 20252,701
Jan 20252,758
Dec 20242,606
Nov 20242,365
Oct 20242,206
Sept 20242,430
Aug 20242,358
Jul 20242,233
Jun 20242,015
May 20242,154
Apr 20242,400
Mar 20242,467
Feb 20242,290
Jan 20242,160
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,400
Oct 20232,144
Sept 20232,333
Aug 20232,275
Jul 20232,267
Jun 20232,200
May 20232,156
Apr 20232,217
Mar 20232,408
Feb 20232,225
Dec 20222,000
Nov 20221,971
Oct 20221,640
Sept 20221,560
Aug 20221,515
May 20221,449
Apr 20221,433
Mar 20221,488
Feb 20221,475
Jan 20221,400
Oct 20211,300
Sept 20211,300
May 20211,100
Apr 20211,100
Mar 20211,033
Feb 2021925
Jan 20211,025
Dec 2020987
Nov 2020883
Oct 2020700
Sept 2020723
Aug 2020661
Jul 2020715
Jun 2020715
Mar 2020700
Feb 2020733
Jan 2020800
Dec 2019800
Oct 2019760
Aug 2019625
Jul 2019758
Jun 2019833
May 2019886
Mar 2019983
Feb 2019592
Jan 2019960
Dec 2018983
Nov 2018980
Oct 2018950
Sept 2018940
Aug 2018900
Jul 2018975
Jun 2018933
May 2018940
Apr 2018925
Mar 20181,100
Feb 20181,133
Jan 20181,100
Dec 20171,133
Nov 20171,233
Oct 20171,200
Sept 20171,180
Aug 20171,225
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,220
Apr 20171,167
Mar 20171,125
Feb 20171,217
Jan 20171,200
Dec 20161,200
Nov 2016967
Oct 2016880

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2429-74-retail-kg.