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Oil (vegetable) in Buyengero

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 9% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,729–23,379

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,648–24,831

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,729 and 23,379 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,648 and 24,831 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Buyengero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,729 and 23,379 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,648 and 24,831 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 38,509); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 15,054–20,900 17,719 12,948–23,978 18,867 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,673–22,230 17,850 11,855–25,310 19,325 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,729–23,379 17,111 10,995–34,888 18,541 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,089–23,871 16,933 11,304–34,902 18,990 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,648–24,831 16,862 10,499–38,509 19,515 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202619,000
Jun 202615,792
May 202618,528
Apr 202618,583
Mar 202616,167
Feb 202616,225
Jan 202616,574
Dec 202517,191
Nov 202517,469
Oct 202518,347
Sept 202519,580
Aug 202514,000
Jul 202521,000
Jun 202518,891
May 202518,700
Apr 202517,925
Mar 202519,300
Feb 202515,143
Jan 202515,514
Dec 202413,333
Nov 202411,562
Oct 202413,941
Sept 202412,889
Aug 202410,462
Jul 20249,833
Jun 202410,333
May 202410,211
Apr 202412,000
Mar 202410,500
Feb 202410,367
Jan 202410,902
Dec 202312,000
Nov 202311,500
Oct 202313,250
Sept 202310,872
Aug 202310,250
Jul 202310,917
Jun 202311,636
May 202311,412
Apr 202310,239
Mar 20238,586
Feb 202310,062
Dec 20228,591
Nov 20228,750
Oct 20229,766
Sept 202221,087Data error
Aug 20228,865
May 20229,167
Apr 20228,000
Mar 20228,417
Feb 20228,500
Jan 20228,500
Oct 20216,500
Sept 20216,500
May 20215,000
Apr 20215,486
Mar 20215,833
Feb 20215,500
Jan 20215,500
Dec 20205,741
Nov 20205,767
Oct 20206,000
Sept 20206,000
Aug 20205,611
Jul 20205,562
Jun 20206,000
Mar 20205,917
Feb 20206,000
Jan 20206,000
Dec 20196,400
Nov 20196,400
Oct 20196,300
Sept 20196,250
Aug 20196,000
Jul 20196,333
Jun 20196,333
May 20196,000
Mar 20196,500
Feb 20194,200
Jan 20196,400
Dec 20186,333
Nov 20186,200
Oct 20186,500
Sept 20186,667
Aug 20186,400
Jul 20186,375
Jun 20184,833
May 20184,900
Apr 20184,750
Mar 20184,250
Feb 20183,333
Jan 20185,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2429-96-retail-kg.