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Food basket in Buyengero

Rumonge, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

35,632–49,774

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

35,753–57,100

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 38,438 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 35,632 and 49,774 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 35,753 and 57,100 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Buyengero: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 38,438 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 35,632 and 49,774 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 35,753 and 57,100 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 82,974); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 36,534–42,393 39,377 35,063–45,304
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 35,705–44,332 39,389 33,695–49,457
Nov 2026
Next month		 35,632–49,774 40,279 33,607–61,819
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 35,405–53,235 40,875 33,232–82,974
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 35,753–57,100 41,455 32,222–76,933
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202638,438
Jun 202642,206
May 202645,513
Apr 202641,869
Mar 202641,337
Feb 202641,384
Jan 202640,133
Dec 202538,556
Nov 202539,469
Oct 202538,858
Sept 202540,579
Aug 202540,100
Jul 202536,676
Jun 202539,144
May 202540,332
Apr 202542,547
Mar 202538,525
Feb 202544,408
Jan 202543,138
Dec 202441,985
Nov 202438,562
Oct 202436,176
Sept 202438,202
Aug 202436,242
Jul 202435,500
Jun 202432,913
May 202435,771
Apr 202437,515
Mar 202438,983
Feb 202436,141
Jan 202434,388
Dec 202332,865
Nov 202338,134
Oct 202333,961
Sept 202337,107
Aug 202335,839
Jul 202335,005
Jun 202334,914
May 202335,302
Apr 202336,002
Mar 202338,284
Feb 202335,000
Dec 202231,203
Nov 202230,612
Oct 202225,260
Sept 202224,583
Aug 202223,320
May 202224,030
Apr 202222,763
Mar 202222,691
Feb 202222,539
Jan 202221,459
Oct 202120,370
Sept 202120,370
May 202118,165
Apr 202118,014
Mar 202117,116
Feb 202115,885
Jan 202117,162
Dec 202016,432
Nov 202015,372
Oct 202012,860
Sept 202012,954
Aug 202011,740
Jul 202012,221
Jun 202012,467
Mar 202012,362
Feb 202012,619
Jan 202013,762
Dec 201913,358
Oct 201912,920
Aug 201910,746
Jul 201912,832
Jun 201914,263
May 201914,973
Mar 201915,556
Feb 201910,918
Jan 201915,464
Dec 201815,774
Nov 201815,344
Oct 201814,858
Sept 201814,819
Aug 201814,742
Jul 201815,296
Jun 201815,052
May 201815,118
Apr 201821,412
Mar 201816,180
Feb 201816,684
Jan 201816,173

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620