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Oil (palm) in Gasenyi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,053–10,771

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,391–12,966

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

18%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 20% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,053 and 10,771 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,391 and 12,966 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gasenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 20% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,053 and 10,771 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,391 and 12,966 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 18%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 24,421); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,981–11,511 9,180 7,678–12,037 10,510 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,733–11,766 9,041 6,953–13,752 9,578 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,053–10,771 8,217 6,617–12,299 8,423 18%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,171–11,247 8,426 6,671–14,093 9,009 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,391–12,966 8,952 6,476–24,421 9,457 –
Price history (97 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,500
Jul 202611,500
Jun 202610,722
May 202610,618
Apr 20269,667
Mar 20269,111
Feb 202610,643
Jan 202610,412
Dec 20257,000
Nov 20257,510
Oct 20259,961
Sept 202511,778
Aug 20259,333
Jul 202510,769
Jun 202511,812
May 202510,333
Apr 202510,125
Mar 202510,412
Feb 20258,512
Jan 20257,069
Dec 20246,550
Nov 20245,380
Oct 20245,621
Sept 20247,078
Aug 20247,359
Jul 20247,333
Jun 20246,062
May 20246,111
Apr 20245,750
Mar 20245,912
Feb 20245,400
Jan 20245,650
Dec 20235,667
Nov 20234,750
Oct 20235,683
Sept 20235,969
Aug 20235,890
Jul 20235,650
Jun 20236,356
May 20235,118
Apr 20235,219
Mar 20235,108
Feb 20235,056
Jan 20235,000
Dec 20224,485
Nov 20224,441
Oct 20225,333
Sept 20225,625
Aug 20224,000
Jun 20224,750
May 20224,550
Apr 20224,500
Mar 20224,001
Feb 20224,079
Jan 20223,575
Dec 20213,800
Nov 20213,666
Oct 20213,250
Sept 20214,000
May 20213,600
Apr 20213,312
Mar 20213,354
Feb 20213,250
Jan 20212,876
Dec 20202,841
Nov 20202,425
Oct 20203,500
Sept 20203,150
Aug 20202,621
Jul 20203,000
Jun 20202,922
Mar 20203,000
Feb 20203,250
Jan 20202,900
Dec 20193,125
Nov 20193,167
Oct 20193,375
Sept 20193,000
Aug 20193,250
Jul 20193,000
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,250
Mar 20193,167
Feb 20192,500
Jan 20192,780
Dec 20182,875
Nov 20182,750
Oct 20182,833
Sept 20183,667
Aug 20183,375
Jul 20183,800
Jun 20183,360
May 20183,375
Apr 20183,167
Mar 20182,633
Feb 20182,833
Jan 20182,067

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2430-62-retail-kg.