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Cassava flour in Gasenyi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 12% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,603–2,466

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,598–2,730

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,603 and 2,466 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,598 and 2,730 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gasenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,603 and 2,466 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,598 and 2,730 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,889); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,657–2,141 1,872 1,458–2,624 1,699 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,618–2,302 1,919 1,405–2,892 1,739 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,603–2,466 1,878 1,350–3,070 1,942 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,548–2,662 1,858 1,344–3,889 1,971 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,598–2,730 1,896 1,382–3,459 1,956 –
Price history (110 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jul 20262,150
Jun 20262,383
May 20262,118
Apr 20262,333
Mar 20262,250
Feb 20262,010
Jan 20262,047
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20251,622
Oct 20251,514
Sept 20251,439
Aug 20251,500
Jul 20251,700
Jun 20251,959
May 20251,742
Apr 20251,734
Mar 20251,738
Feb 20251,599
Jan 20251,439
Dec 20241,593
Nov 20241,407
Oct 20241,370
Sept 20241,222
Aug 20241,390
Jul 20241,792
Jun 20241,825
May 20242,000
Apr 20241,900
Mar 20242,031
Feb 20241,889
Jan 20242,160
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20231,900
Oct 20231,767
Sept 20231,600
Aug 20231,625
Jul 20231,840
Jun 20232,097
May 20232,006
Apr 20232,025
Mar 20232,073
Feb 20231,767
Jan 20231,800
Dec 20221,491
Nov 20221,547
Oct 20221,156
Sept 20221,292
Aug 20221,425
Jun 20221,450
May 20221,365
Apr 20221,300
Mar 20221,222
Feb 20221,136
Jan 20221,194
Dec 20211,125
Nov 20211,046
Oct 20211,050
Sept 20211,000
May 20211,100
Apr 20211,031
Mar 20211,000
Feb 20211,000
Jan 2021903
Dec 2020959
Nov 20201,000
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020940
Aug 2020745
Jul 2020985
Jun 2020950
Mar 2020900
Feb 2020912
Jan 20201,000
Dec 2019950
Oct 2019750
Aug 2019700
Jul 2019867
Jun 20191,000
May 2019650
Mar 2019683
Feb 2019533
Jan 2019680
Dec 2018725
Nov 2018825
Oct 20181,000
Sept 2018733
Aug 2018925
Jul 2018930
Jun 2018940
May 20181,000
Apr 20181,000
Mar 20181,133
Feb 20181,067
Jan 20181,167
Dec 20171,200
Nov 20171,367
Oct 20171,267
Sept 20171,233
Aug 20171,550
Jul 20171,460
Jun 20171,350
May 20171,500
Apr 20171,350
Mar 20171,167
Feb 20171,133
Jan 2017925
Dec 20161,150
Nov 2016971
Oct 2016825

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2430-74-retail-kg.