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Maize flour in Gasenyi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,881–2,697

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,789–2,753

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,881 and 2,697 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,789 and 2,753 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gasenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,881 and 2,697 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,789 and 2,753 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,829–2,236 1,990 1,686–2,535 2,389 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,801–2,430 2,062 1,632–2,539 2,549 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,881–2,697 2,197 1,662–3,091 3,017 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,846–2,742 2,182 1,625–3,480 2,967 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,789–2,753 2,095 1,587–3,166 2,789 –
Price history (110 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jul 20262,000
Jun 20261,922
May 20261,918
Apr 20261,933
Mar 20261,844
Feb 20262,212
Jan 20262,629
Dec 20252,500
Nov 20254,075
Oct 20252,298
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20251,800
Jul 20251,954
Jun 20251,978
May 20251,975
Apr 20252,050
Mar 20251,835
Feb 20252,298
Jan 20252,819
Dec 20242,837
Nov 20242,658
Oct 20242,500
Sept 20242,249
Aug 20242,000
Jul 20241,983
Jun 20241,912
May 20241,806
Apr 20241,850
Mar 20241,904
Feb 20242,080
Jan 20242,370
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20232,350
Oct 20232,297
Sept 20232,219
Aug 20232,171
Jul 20232,047
Jun 20232,009
May 20231,912
Apr 20231,860
Mar 20231,912
Feb 20231,948
Jan 20232,400
Dec 20222,633
Nov 20222,812
Oct 20221,844
Sept 20221,650
Aug 20222,000
Jun 20221,600
May 20221,430
Apr 20221,300
Mar 20221,206
Feb 20221,121
Jan 20221,469
Dec 20211,475
Nov 20211,540
Oct 20211,200
Sept 20211,500
May 2021925
Apr 2021933
Mar 2021956
Feb 20211,150
Jan 20211,112
Dec 20201,400
Nov 20201,325
Oct 20201,400
Sept 20201,190
Aug 20201,073
Jul 20201,015
Jun 20201,011
Mar 2020900
Feb 20201,050
Jan 20201,500
Dec 20191,650
Oct 20191,375
Aug 20191,150
Jul 20191,300
Jun 20191,000
May 2019950
Mar 2019800
Feb 20191,000
Jan 20191,140
Dec 20181,150
Nov 2018975
Oct 2018900
Sept 2018833
Aug 2018900
Jul 2018910
Jun 2018920
May 2018900
Apr 20181,000
Mar 2018900
Feb 2018833
Jan 20181,200
Dec 20171,400
Nov 20171,500
Oct 20171,500
Sept 20171,433
Aug 20171,500
Jul 20171,400
Jun 20171,450
May 20171,500
Apr 20171,550
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,367
Jan 20171,450
Dec 20161,488
Nov 20161,307
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2430-76-retail-kg.