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Oil (vegetable) in Gasenyi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

11,608–17,047

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

11,212–17,467

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,608 and 17,047 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,212 and 17,467 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gasenyi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 11% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,608 and 17,047 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,212 and 17,467 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 11,855–15,204 13,439 11,316–16,514 16,562 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 11,596–16,107 13,667 10,767–17,656 16,313 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 11,608–17,047 13,916 10,458–18,136 16,915 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 11,554–17,519 13,776 10,667–18,213 16,857 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 11,212–17,467 13,747 10,358–18,878 17,495 –
Price history (97 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202613,000
Jul 202613,500
Jun 202614,667
May 202614,618
Apr 202613,833
Mar 202613,389
Feb 202613,167
Jan 202614,353
Dec 202515,000
Nov 202515,375
Oct 202517,667
Sept 202517,852
Aug 202517,000
Jul 202517,692
Jun 202517,625
May 202517,814
Apr 202517,750
Mar 202516,912
Feb 202514,917
Jan 202515,722
Dec 202416,167
Nov 202414,812
Oct 202414,212
Sept 202414,089
Aug 202413,179
Jul 202412,958
Jun 202411,938
May 202410,819
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,000
Feb 20249,089
Jan 20249,100
Dec 20238,667
Nov 20239,500
Oct 20239,200
Sept 20238,698
Aug 20239,186
Jul 20239,533
Jun 20239,970
May 20239,059
Apr 20238,479
Mar 20238,510
Feb 20238,000
Jan 20239,000
Dec 20228,485
Nov 20229,471
Oct 20229,778
Sept 20229,000
Aug 20229,375
Jun 20229,250
May 20229,275
Apr 20229,500
Mar 20228,579
Feb 20229,321
Jan 20229,094
Dec 20218,750
Nov 20218,623
Oct 20218,500
Sept 202110,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,417
Mar 20215,833
Feb 20216,500
Jan 20215,279
Dec 20205,364
Nov 20204,750
Oct 20203,500
Sept 20204,200
Aug 20204,573
Jul 20204,368
Jun 20204,750
Mar 20205,500
Feb 20205,125
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20194,500
Nov 20194,933
Oct 20194,375
Sept 20195,167
Aug 20194,750
Jul 20196,000
Jun 20195,500
May 20195,500
Mar 20194,833
Feb 20194,833
Jan 20194,600
Dec 20185,750
Nov 20185,375
Oct 20185,667
Sept 20184,400
Aug 20185,500
Jul 20185,460
Jun 20185,400
May 20186,000
Apr 20186,000
Mar 20185,667
Feb 20185,667
Jan 20186,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2430-96-retail-kg.