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Food basket in Gasenyi

Cibitoke, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

30,807–43,226

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

31,060–50,892

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 36,165 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 30,807 and 43,226 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 31,060 and 50,892 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gasenyi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 36,165 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 30,807 and 43,226 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 31,060 and 50,892 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 66,053); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 32,304–39,672 35,504 30,042–44,553
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 32,082–42,697 36,081 29,470–50,680
Nov 2026
Next month		 30,807–43,226 35,464 27,780–50,387
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 30,333–46,964 35,793 27,910–59,753
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 31,060–50,892 36,703 28,105–66,053
Cost history (95 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202636,165
Jul 202639,135
Jun 202642,098
May 202641,786
Apr 202643,760
Mar 202639,727
Feb 202637,415
Jan 202637,466
Dec 202535,130
Nov 202530,782
Oct 202530,681
Sept 202531,170
Aug 202530,020
Jul 202533,148
Jun 202537,108
May 202534,336
Apr 202533,885
Mar 202535,100
Feb 202530,703
Jan 202528,020
Dec 202430,923
Nov 202427,187
Oct 202426,479
Sept 202425,370
Aug 202427,316
Jul 202431,900
Jun 202430,701
May 202433,644
Apr 202432,258
Mar 202433,598
Feb 202430,849
Jan 202433,418
Dec 202332,950
Nov 202331,478
Oct 202330,618
Sept 202328,602
Aug 202328,769
Jul 202331,060
Jun 202333,766
May 202333,002
Apr 202334,529
Mar 202335,348
Feb 202330,128
Jan 202329,910
Dec 202225,245
Nov 202225,939
Oct 202220,787
Sept 202222,621
Aug 202222,965
Jun 202224,098
May 202222,984
Apr 202221,945
Mar 202219,721
Feb 202219,098
Jan 202219,014
Dec 202118,507
Nov 202117,499
Oct 202117,362
Sept 202117,100
May 202118,474
Apr 202117,557
Mar 202117,296
Feb 202116,672
Jan 202115,499
Dec 202016,775
Nov 202016,823
Oct 202014,895
Sept 202016,460
Aug 202013,397
Jul 202016,347
Jun 202015,606
Mar 202015,570
Feb 202015,488
Jan 202016,161
Dec 201915,941
Oct 201913,804
Aug 201912,892
Jul 201914,750
Jun 201915,870
May 201912,112
Mar 201912,635
Feb 20199,865
Jan 201912,274
Dec 201813,024
Nov 201813,958
Oct 201816,145
Sept 201813,430
Aug 201815,319
Jul 201815,654
Jun 201815,344
May 201816,219
Apr 201815,985
Mar 201817,397
Feb 201816,645
Jan 201817,106

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620