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Oil (palm) in Gasorwe

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,207–10,970

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,735–12,371

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,207 and 10,970 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,735 and 12,371 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gasorwe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,207 and 10,970 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,735 and 12,371 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 18,016); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,493–10,374 9,237 7,895–10,583 10,887 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,848–10,142 8,846 7,219–11,254 9,712 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,207–10,970 9,043 7,306–14,810 10,224 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,018–11,615 9,061 7,076–16,408 10,246 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,735–12,371 9,311 6,985–18,016 10,812 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,500
Jun 202610,062
May 20269,794
Apr 20269,750
Mar 20269,000
Feb 20269,250
Jan 202610,140
Dec 202510,206
Nov 202511,222
Oct 202510,875
Sept 202511,065
Aug 202511,500
Jul 202511,731
Jun 202511,205
May 202510,472
Apr 20259,400
Mar 20259,750
Feb 20258,435
Jan 20256,941
Dec 20246,466
Nov 20245,912
Oct 20245,889
Sept 20246,680
Aug 20246,522
Jul 20246,528
Jun 20246,652
May 20246,153
Apr 20246,153
Mar 20245,767
Feb 20245,825
Jan 20246,000
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20236,333
Sept 20236,750
Aug 20236,463
Jul 20235,890
Jun 20235,644
May 20235,590
Apr 20235,190
Mar 20235,062
Feb 20234,417
Dec 20224,167
Nov 20224,080
Oct 20224,171
Sept 20224,518
Aug 20224,625
May 20224,750
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,675
Feb 20223,450
Jan 20223,550
Oct 20213,100
May 20212,900
Apr 20212,732
Mar 20212,591
Feb 20212,433
Jan 20212,472
Dec 20202,365
Nov 20202,260
Oct 20201,956
Sept 20202,136
Aug 20202,300
Jul 20202,333
Jun 20202,500
Mar 20202,367
Feb 20202,300
Jan 20202,420
Dec 20192,317
Nov 20192,267
Oct 20192,140
Sept 20192,267
Aug 20192,500
Jul 20192,490
Jun 20192,700
May 20192,567
Mar 20192,350
Feb 20192,133
Jan 20192,000
Dec 20182,000
Nov 20182,140
Oct 20181,933
Sept 20182,533
Aug 20182,950
Jul 20183,200
Jun 20183,060
May 20182,800
Apr 20182,467
Mar 20182,367
Feb 20182,075
Jan 20181,960

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2431-62-retail-kg.