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Maize (white) in Gasorwe

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,479–2,215

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,358–2,266

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,479 and 2,215 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,358 and 2,266 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Gasorwe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 19% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,479 and 2,215 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,358 and 2,266 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,963); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,439–1,889 1,646 1,311–2,126 2,092 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,443–2,001 1,679 1,232–2,572 2,139 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,479–2,215 1,736 1,289–2,960 2,394 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,427–2,387 1,662 1,245–4,963 2,157 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,358–2,266 1,640 1,129–3,554 2,012 –
Price history (101 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,617
Jun 20261,325
May 20261,358
Apr 20261,200
Mar 20261,300
Feb 20261,500
Jan 20261,898
Dec 20251,759
Nov 20251,672
Oct 20251,612
Sept 20251,670
Aug 20251,500
Jul 20251,635
Jun 20251,627
May 20251,294
Apr 20251,280
Mar 20251,044
Feb 20251,787
Jan 20252,084
Dec 20242,105
Nov 20242,000
Oct 20241,825
Sept 20241,769
Aug 20241,748
Jul 20241,600
Jun 20241,404
May 20241,110
Apr 20241,325
Mar 20241,475
Feb 20241,375
Jan 20241,619
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,100
Oct 20231,733
Sept 20231,867
Aug 20231,582
Jul 20231,524
Jun 20231,350
May 20231,455
Apr 20231,396
Mar 20231,550
Feb 20231,393
Dec 20221,500
Nov 20221,790
Oct 20221,674
Sept 20221,445
Aug 20221,338
May 2022950
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022662
Feb 2022800
Jan 20221,000
Oct 20211,040
May 2021740
Apr 2021649
Mar 2021682
Feb 2021750
Jan 2021858
Dec 2020870
Nov 2020917
Oct 2020936
Sept 2020851
Aug 2020675
Jul 2020692
Jun 2020642
Mar 2020583
Feb 2020550
Jan 2020950
Dec 20191,067
Oct 2019917
Aug 2019730
Jul 2019790
Jun 2019450
May 2019442
Mar 2019392
Feb 2019625
Jan 2019548
Dec 2018566
Nov 2018580
Oct 2018517
Sept 2018433
Aug 2018483
Jul 2018500
Jun 2018500
May 2018450
Apr 2018433
Mar 2018483
Feb 2018525
Jan 2018833
Dec 2017800
Nov 2017950
Oct 20171,000
Sept 20171,333
Aug 20171,007
Jul 2017940
Jun 20171,115
May 20171,150
Apr 20171,075
Mar 20171,000
Nov 20161,200
Oct 2016900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2431-67-retail-kg.