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Cassava flour in Gasorwe

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,219–2,030

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,236–2,234

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,219 and 2,030 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,236 and 2,234 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gasorwe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,219 and 2,030 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,236 and 2,234 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,944); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,272–1,615 1,447 1,162–1,771 1,599 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,171–1,710 1,422 1,061–2,047 1,475 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,219–2,030 1,460 1,121–2,551 1,850 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,220–2,220 1,460 1,089–3,944 1,804 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,236–2,234 1,488 1,034–3,304 1,762 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,433
Jun 20261,588
May 20261,594
Apr 20261,688
Mar 20261,500
Feb 20261,500
Jan 20261,640
Dec 20251,500
Nov 20251,500
Oct 20251,229
Sept 20251,626
Aug 20251,750
Jul 20251,892
Jun 20252,000
May 20251,511
Apr 20251,530
Mar 20251,512
Feb 20251,328
Jan 20251,314
Dec 20241,622
Nov 20241,303
Oct 20241,433
Sept 20241,527
Aug 20241,498
Jul 20241,539
Jun 20241,524
May 20241,482
Apr 20241,631
Mar 20241,517
Feb 20241,731
Jan 20241,709
Dec 20232,100
Nov 20231,800
Oct 20231,500
Sept 20231,533
Aug 20231,512
Jul 20231,681
Jun 20231,772
May 20231,815
Apr 20231,876
Mar 20231,721
Feb 20231,470
Dec 20221,233
Nov 20221,200
Oct 20221,062
Sept 2022974
Aug 20221,000
May 20221,100
Apr 20221,100
Mar 2022875
Feb 20221,000
Jan 2022950
Oct 2021800
May 20211,000
Apr 2021978
Mar 2021909
Feb 2021950
Jan 2021917
Dec 2020848
Nov 2020830
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020600
Aug 2020600
Jul 2020711
Jun 2020750
Mar 2020600
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020580
Dec 2019550
Oct 2019380
Aug 2019430
Jul 2019433
Jun 2019567
May 2019500
Mar 2019417
Feb 2019525
Jan 2019433
Dec 2018400
Nov 2018460
Oct 2018417
Sept 2018400
Aug 2018450
Jul 2018542
Jun 2018600
May 2018675
Apr 2018800
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018800
Jan 2018960
Dec 2017950
Nov 20171,050
Oct 20171,050
Sept 20171,000
Aug 20171,000
Jul 20171,000
Jun 20171,175
May 20171,225
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,200
Feb 20171,140
Jan 20171,100
Dec 20161,044
Nov 2016960
Oct 2016750

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2431-74-retail-kg.