Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Maize flour in Gasorwe

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,749–2,473

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,657–2,667

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 21% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,749 and 2,473 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,657 and 2,667 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gasorwe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 21% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,749 and 2,473 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,657 and 2,667 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,281); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,698–2,057 1,853 1,616–2,490 2,168 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,671–2,207 1,895 1,580–2,706 2,264 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,749–2,473 1,953 1,619–3,469 2,528 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,735–2,574 1,993 1,566–4,064 2,593 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,657–2,667 1,944 1,519–4,281 2,433 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,900
Jun 20261,575
May 20261,575
Apr 20261,475
Mar 20261,700
Feb 20261,850
Jan 20262,256
Dec 20252,076
Nov 20252,100
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20251,939
Aug 20251,850
Jul 20251,908
Jun 20251,911
May 20251,572
Apr 20251,650
Mar 20251,562
Feb 20252,274
Jan 20252,387
Dec 20242,444
Nov 20242,282
Oct 20242,044
Sept 20242,084
Aug 20241,995
Jul 20241,894
Jun 20241,674
May 20241,335
Apr 20241,578
Mar 20241,750
Feb 20241,783
Jan 20241,859
Dec 20232,500
Nov 20231,950
Oct 20232,033
Sept 20232,000
Aug 20231,847
Jul 20231,716
Jun 20231,683
May 20231,660
Apr 20231,716
Mar 20231,792
Feb 20231,700
Dec 20221,900
Nov 20222,070
Oct 20221,788
Sept 20221,600
Aug 20221,550
May 20221,133
Apr 20221,050
Mar 2022825
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,300
Oct 20211,150
May 2021950
Apr 2021820
Mar 2021812
Feb 20211,000
Jan 20211,111
Dec 20201,135
Nov 20201,123
Oct 2020900
Sept 2020859
Aug 2020800
Jul 2020861
Jun 2020842
Mar 2020767
Feb 2020800
Jan 20201,200
Dec 20191,200
Oct 20191,040
Aug 2019860
Jul 2019983
Jun 2019633
May 2019600
Mar 2019617
Feb 2019858
Jan 2019750
Dec 2018758
Nov 2018740
Oct 2018683
Sept 2018617
Aug 2018675
Jul 2018700
Jun 2018660
May 2018625
Apr 2018600
Mar 2018700
Feb 2018775
Jan 20181,000
Dec 20171,050
Nov 20171,125
Oct 20171,225
Sept 20171,175
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,225
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,225
Apr 20171,225
Mar 20171,250
Feb 20171,310
Jan 20171,333
Dec 20161,300
Nov 20161,200
Oct 20161,025

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2431-76-retail-kg.