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Oil (vegetable) in Gasorwe

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,367–20,325

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,406–21,259

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,367 and 20,325 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,406 and 21,259 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gasorwe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,367 and 20,325 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,406 and 21,259 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 28,873); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,552–18,257 16,372 13,789–20,676 16,801 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,234–18,856 16,347 13,797–24,615 16,865 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,367–20,325 16,217 13,652–28,873 17,212 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,551–20,912 16,243 13,469–27,427 18,296 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,406–21,259 16,206 13,221–25,111 19,140 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,000
Jun 202616,125
May 202617,529
Apr 202618,875
Mar 202616,083
Feb 202618,250
Jan 202616,320
Dec 202517,176
Nov 202518,333
Oct 202516,542
Sept 202514,196
Aug 202516,000
Jul 202516,385
Jun 202516,727
May 202514,778
Apr 202516,350
Mar 202515,562
Feb 202513,043
Jan 202513,843
Dec 202413,196
Nov 202410,338
Oct 202410,944
Sept 202411,117
Aug 202411,000
Jul 202410,167
Jun 20249,239
May 20249,208
Apr 20249,219
Mar 20248,125
Feb 20248,861
Jan 20248,289
Dec 202310,000
Nov 20238,300
Oct 20237,383
Sept 20238,283
Aug 20237,825
Jul 20237,722
Jun 20237,856
May 20237,455
Apr 20238,044
Mar 20237,438
Feb 20237,704
Dec 20228,333
Nov 20227,685
Oct 20228,035
Sept 20228,171
Aug 20227,250
May 20227,083
Apr 20228,250
Mar 20227,875
Feb 20227,250
Jan 20227,000
Oct 20216,500
May 20214,167
Apr 20214,250
Mar 20214,147
Feb 20214,333
Jan 20214,139
Dec 20204,035
Nov 20203,953
Oct 20203,694
Sept 20203,843
Aug 20204,000
Jul 20204,028
Jun 20203,875
Mar 20203,750
Feb 20203,875
Jan 20203,800
Dec 20193,833
Nov 20193,833
Oct 20193,740
Sept 20193,833
Aug 20193,800
Jul 20193,900
Jun 20193,833
May 20193,500
Mar 20193,500
Feb 20194,017
Jan 20193,583
Dec 20183,750
Nov 20183,900
Oct 20183,833
Sept 20183,833
Aug 20183,750
Jul 20183,833
Jun 20183,800
May 20184,000
Apr 20183,667
Mar 20183,500
Feb 20183,875
Jan 20184,875

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2431-96-retail-kg.