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Food basket in Gasorwe

Muyinga, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

26,331–39,302

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

26,067–43,016

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,795 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,331 and 39,302 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,067 and 43,016 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gasorwe: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 28,795 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 26,331 and 39,302 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 26,067 and 43,016 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 66,574); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 26,735–31,974 29,286 25,088–35,030
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 25,589–33,180 28,953 23,935–37,689
Nov 2026
Next month		 26,331–39,302 30,389 24,818–48,375
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 26,347–42,081 30,483 24,549–66,574
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 26,067–43,016 30,954 23,840–60,100
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202628,795
Jun 202630,718
May 202634,729
Apr 202635,190
Mar 202629,610
Feb 202629,782
Jan 202631,681
Dec 202529,542
Nov 202530,593
Oct 202527,016
Sept 202531,484
Aug 202533,435
Jul 202535,157
Jun 202535,716
May 202530,009
Apr 202530,336
Mar 202530,761
Feb 202527,159
Jan 202526,095
Dec 202430,332
Nov 202425,459
Oct 202426,863
Sept 202428,033
Aug 202427,515
Jul 202427,471
Jun 202427,083
May 202426,966
Apr 202429,136
Mar 202427,264
Feb 202429,721
Jan 202429,192
Dec 202334,380
Nov 202330,240
Oct 202327,410
Sept 202327,497
Aug 202327,079
Jul 202328,084
Jun 202328,451
May 202331,181
Apr 202332,315
Mar 202330,443
Feb 202326,545
Dec 202221,695
Nov 202220,784
Oct 202218,816
Sept 202217,502
Aug 202217,441
May 202219,597
Apr 202218,840
Mar 202215,016
Feb 202216,180
Jan 202215,650
Oct 202113,809
May 202115,801
Apr 202116,130
Mar 202115,156
Feb 202115,599
Jan 202114,926
Dec 202014,556
Nov 202014,399
Oct 202011,209
Sept 202011,145
Aug 202011,217
Jul 202012,123
Jun 202012,555
Mar 202011,083
Feb 202010,902
Jan 202010,394
Dec 201910,238
Oct 20197,837
Aug 20198,577
Jul 20198,808
Jun 20199,983
May 20199,571
Mar 20198,452
Feb 20199,572
Jan 20198,260
Dec 20188,340
Nov 20188,797
Oct 20188,104
Sept 20188,258
Aug 20188,935
Jul 201810,148
Jun 201810,751
May 201811,607
Apr 201812,682
Mar 201812,493
Feb 201812,427
Jan 201814,420

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620