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Oil (palm) in Gihamagara

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,348–11,987

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,249–13,875

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

10%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,348 and 11,987 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,249 and 13,875 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gihamagara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,348 and 11,987 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,249 and 13,875 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 10%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 24,454); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,936–11,109 9,688 8,183–11,877 10,916 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,108–11,109 9,098 7,611–12,705 9,749 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,348–11,987 9,256 7,620–17,021 10,086 10%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,364–12,489 9,373 7,357–18,369 10,430 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,249–13,875 9,793 7,086–24,454 11,102 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202610,000
Jun 202611,333
May 202611,583
Apr 202610,000
Mar 202610,000
Feb 202610,000
Jan 20269,222
Dec 202510,000
Nov 202510,000
Oct 202510,667
Sept 202511,667
Aug 202511,125
Jul 202512,000
Jun 202510,396
May 202511,765
Apr 202511,375
Mar 202510,764
Feb 20259,004
Jan 20258,146
Dec 20246,342
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20246,000
Sept 20246,081
Aug 20246,731
Jul 20246,283
Jun 20246,521
May 20246,219
Apr 20245,900
Mar 20245,753
Feb 20246,000
Jan 20246,000
Dec 20236,500
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20236,187
Sept 20236,298
Aug 20236,100
Jul 20236,000
Jun 20235,844
May 20235,720
Apr 20235,194
Mar 20234,929
Feb 20234,724
Dec 20224,478
Nov 20224,421
Oct 20224,023
Sept 20224,707
Aug 20224,938
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,720
Apr 20224,146
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,583
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20213,250
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,870
Mar 20212,641
Feb 20212,600
Jan 20212,600
Dec 20202,430
Nov 20202,412
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,400
Aug 20202,500
Jul 20202,500
Jun 20202,700
Mar 20202,533
Feb 20202,560
Jan 20202,533
Dec 20192,429
Nov 20192,460
Oct 20192,120
Sept 20192,525
Aug 20192,720
Jul 20192,800
Jun 20192,833
May 20192,733
Mar 20192,417
Feb 20192,200
Jan 20192,267
Dec 20182,143
Nov 20182,133
Oct 20181,933
Sept 20182,520
Aug 20183,040
Jul 20183,583
Jun 20183,367
May 20182,800
Apr 20182,425
Mar 20182,417
Feb 20182,000
Jan 20182,133

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2432-62-retail-kg.