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Cassava flour in Gihamagara

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 24% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,027–1,949

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,003–2,524

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 38% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,027 and 1,949 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,003 and 2,524 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gihamagara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 24% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 38% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,027 and 1,949 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,003 and 2,524 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 6,492); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,011–1,474 1,233 970–1,758 1,494 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 940–1,594 1,245 867–2,455 1,395 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,027–1,949 1,296 859–2,705 1,709 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,010–2,243 1,304 898–3,995 1,699 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,003–2,524 1,317 869–6,492 1,647 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,100
Jun 20261,500
May 20261,767
Apr 20261,800
Mar 20261,871
Feb 20261,490
Jan 20261,444
Dec 20251,044
Nov 20251,100
Oct 20251,233
Sept 20251,356
Aug 20251,390
Jul 20251,635
Jun 20251,517
May 20251,524
Apr 20251,500
Mar 20251,437
Feb 20251,383
Jan 20251,083
Dec 20241,533
Nov 20241,523
Oct 20241,303
Sept 20241,238
Aug 20241,446
Jul 20241,533
Jun 20241,460
May 20241,533
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,557
Feb 20241,720
Jan 20241,822
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,800
Oct 20231,697
Sept 20231,702
Aug 20231,625
Jul 20231,711
Jun 20231,789
May 20231,855
Apr 20231,815
Mar 20231,921
Feb 20231,817
Dec 20221,361
Nov 20221,400
Oct 20221,131
Sept 20221,000
Aug 20221,102
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,133
Apr 2022973
Mar 2022895
Feb 20221,129
Jan 20221,100
Oct 2021800
May 2021800
Apr 2021848
Mar 2021735
Feb 2021875
Jan 2021892
Dec 2020808
Nov 2020803
Oct 2020636
Sept 2020630
Aug 2020625
Jul 2020650
Jun 2020700
Mar 2020550
Feb 2020560
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019664
Oct 2019350
Aug 2019480
Jul 2019425
Jun 2019600
May 2019600
Mar 2019583
Feb 2019542
Jan 2019600
Dec 2018671
Nov 2018550
Oct 2018492
Sept 2018480
Aug 2018620
Jul 2018600
Jun 2018717
May 2018800
Apr 2018900
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018967
Dec 20171,000
Nov 2017950
Oct 20171,025
Sept 20171,033
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,100
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,025
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016911
Oct 2016775

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2432-74-retail-kg.