Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Maize flour in Gihamagara

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 1% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,866–2,578

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,770–2,737

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 23% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,866 and 2,578 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,770 and 2,737 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gihamagara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was at the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 23% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,866 and 2,578 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,770 and 2,737 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,113); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,826–2,142 1,946 1,633–2,602 2,202 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,811–2,343 2,021 1,612–2,610 2,315 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,866–2,578 2,144 1,643–3,335 2,616 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,848–2,709 2,171 1,600–4,113 2,682 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,770–2,737 2,147 1,561–3,516 2,643 –
Price history (105 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,000
Jun 20261,667
May 20261,622
Apr 20261,650
Mar 20261,969
Feb 20262,121
Jan 20262,256
Dec 20252,018
Nov 20252,000
Oct 20252,000
Sept 20251,867
Aug 20251,900
Jul 20251,741
Jun 20251,785
May 20251,741
Apr 20251,690
Mar 20251,672
Feb 20252,168
Jan 20252,500
Dec 20242,562
Nov 20242,468
Oct 20242,056
Sept 20242,162
Aug 20241,882
Jul 20241,700
Jun 20241,675
May 20241,753
Apr 20241,800
Mar 20241,725
Feb 20241,936
Jan 20242,067
Dec 20232,000
Nov 20232,200
Oct 20232,047
Sept 20232,035
Aug 20231,950
Jul 20231,911
Jun 20231,785
May 20231,605
Apr 20231,675
Mar 20231,960
Feb 20232,091
Dec 20222,083
Nov 20221,994
Oct 20221,892
Sept 20221,590
Aug 20221,500
Jun 20221,200
May 20221,186
Apr 20221,146
Mar 20221,035
Feb 20221,364
Jan 20221,400
Oct 20211,150
May 2021800
Apr 2021830
Mar 2021800
Feb 20211,075
Jan 20211,183
Dec 20201,083
Nov 20201,025
Oct 2020927
Sept 2020800
Aug 2020750
Jul 2020783
Jun 2020738
Mar 2020850
Feb 2020960
Jan 20201,200
Dec 20191,300
Oct 20191,067
Aug 2019760
Jul 2019925
Jun 2019633
May 2019633
Mar 2019800
Feb 2019808
Jan 20191,000
Dec 2018914
Nov 2018817
Oct 2018700
Sept 2018660
Aug 2018630
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018700
May 2018740
Apr 2018750
Mar 2018775
Feb 2018800
Jan 20181,067
Dec 20171,150
Nov 20171,225
Oct 20171,275
Sept 20171,217
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,275
Jan 20171,333
Dec 20161,305
Nov 20161,178
Oct 2016950

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2432-76-retail-kg.