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Oil (vegetable) in Gihamagara

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

13,578–19,866

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,341–20,530

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

9%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,578 and 19,866 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,341 and 20,530 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gihamagara: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 13,578 and 19,866 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,341 and 20,530 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 9%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,727); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,448–17,173 15,043 12,879–18,618 16,469 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,623–18,407 15,634 12,805–19,325 18,707 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 13,578–19,866 15,361 11,895–26,727 17,394 9%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,647–19,611 15,393 12,055–23,676 18,412 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,341–20,530 15,321 11,858–26,476 18,752 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202615,000
Jun 202616,333
May 202617,167
Apr 202616,500
Mar 202615,104
Feb 202616,365
Jan 202614,861
Dec 202515,147
Nov 202517,750
Oct 202517,333
Sept 202513,167
Aug 202515,525
Jul 202516,176
Jun 202516,438
May 202516,706
Apr 202516,125
Mar 202514,896
Feb 202514,333
Jan 202514,854
Dec 202414,789
Nov 202413,052
Oct 202412,208
Sept 202412,062
Aug 202411,154
Jul 202413,083
Jun 202410,083
May 20249,986
Apr 20249,500
Mar 20249,380
Feb 20249,271
Jan 20249,667
Dec 202312,000
Nov 20237,500
Oct 20239,883
Sept 20239,738
Aug 202311,250
Jul 20239,861
Jun 202310,537
May 20239,500
Apr 20239,895
Mar 20239,571
Feb 20239,370
Dec 20229,417
Nov 202210,618
Oct 202210,198
Sept 20229,370
Aug 20229,000
Jun 20228,000
May 20228,000
Apr 20228,808
Mar 20229,125
Feb 20229,429
Jan 20228,000
Oct 202110,750
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,543
Mar 20216,103
Feb 20215,250
Jan 20215,625
Dec 20205,700
Nov 20205,000
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20205,000
Aug 20204,750
Jul 20205,083
Jun 20205,375
Mar 20204,667
Feb 20204,800
Jan 20204,333
Dec 20194,357
Nov 20194,500
Oct 20194,400
Sept 20194,500
Aug 20194,500
Jul 20194,700
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,500
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,750
Jan 20194,500
Dec 20184,457
Nov 20184,533
Oct 20184,750
Sept 201811,800Data error
Aug 20184,800
Jul 20184,833
Jun 20184,750
May 20184,700
Apr 20184,750
Mar 20184,333
Feb 20185,000
Jan 20185,333

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2432-96-retail-kg.