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Food basket in Gihamagara

Gitega, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

23,584–37,793

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

23,212–46,055

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 25,050 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,584 and 37,793 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,212 and 46,055 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gihamagara: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 25,050 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 23,584 and 37,793 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 23,212 and 46,055 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 90,056); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 24,004–30,631 26,842 23,014–33,980
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 22,883–33,001 26,904 21,561–43,460
Nov 2026
Next month		 23,584–37,793 28,236 21,684–47,425
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 23,737–41,270 28,593 22,166–63,085
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 23,212–46,055 28,782 21,346–90,056
Cost history (90 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202625,050
Jun 202630,260
May 202636,258
Apr 202636,150
Mar 202634,881
Feb 202629,655
Jan 202627,987
Dec 202523,929
Nov 202524,240
Oct 202526,300
Sept 202528,757
Aug 202528,910
Jul 202532,107
Jun 202529,723
May 202530,836
Apr 202531,058
Mar 202530,329
Feb 202528,429
Jan 202524,658
Dec 202429,284
Nov 202428,246
Oct 202425,138
Sept 202424,064
Aug 202426,890
Jul 202427,055
Jun 202425,988
May 202426,821
Apr 202430,891
Mar 202427,826
Feb 202430,144
Jan 202430,287
Dec 202329,865
Nov 202329,715
Oct 202329,393
Sept 202329,203
Aug 202327,984
Jul 202328,113
Jun 202328,843
May 202331,319
Apr 202331,448
Mar 202332,592
Feb 202330,484
Dec 202223,193
Nov 202223,604
Oct 202219,330
Sept 202217,821
Aug 202218,827
Jun 202219,650
May 202219,055
Apr 202217,238
Mar 202214,979
Feb 202217,768
Jan 202217,484
Oct 202113,912
May 202113,290
Apr 202114,287
Mar 202112,869
Feb 202114,589
Jan 202114,504
Dec 202013,897
Nov 202014,295
Oct 202012,107
Sept 202011,790
Aug 202011,385
Jul 202011,565
Jun 202011,973
Mar 202010,718
Feb 202010,646
Jan 202010,658
Dec 201911,589
Oct 20197,481
Aug 20199,138
Jul 20198,854
Jun 201910,397
May 201910,706
Mar 201910,677
Feb 20199,623
Jan 201910,789
Dec 201811,773
Nov 20189,962
Oct 20188,974
Sept 20189,263
Aug 201811,032
Jul 201811,068
Jun 201812,333
May 201813,224
Apr 201814,093
Mar 201812,482
Feb 201813,800
Jan 201814,632

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620