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Oil (palm) in Gihogazi

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,889–10,704

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,605–12,028

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,889 and 10,704 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,605 and 12,028 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gihogazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,889 and 10,704 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,605 and 12,028 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,256–10,396 9,313 8,146–10,871 11,215 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,919–10,405 9,010 7,662–10,682 10,496 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,889–10,704 9,032 7,538–12,093 10,375 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,766–11,193 9,037 6,961–13,489 10,294 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,605–12,028 9,296 6,636–14,761 11,100 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jun 20269,833
May 20269,792
Apr 20269,500
Mar 20269,479
Feb 20269,842
Jan 20269,889
Dec 20259,637
Nov 202511,000
Oct 202510,833
Sept 202511,741
Aug 202512,000
Jul 202512,000
Jun 202512,000
May 202511,548
Apr 202511,588
Mar 20259,880
Feb 20258,636
Jan 20258,123
Dec 20246,412
Nov 20246,510
Oct 20246,230
Sept 20246,350
Aug 20246,324
Jul 20246,325
Jun 20246,865
May 20246,441
Apr 20246,344
Mar 20245,933
Feb 20246,013
Jan 20245,938
Dec 20236,000
Nov 20236,000
Oct 20236,080
Sept 20236,538
Aug 20236,300
Jul 20235,950
Jun 20235,833
May 20236,000
Apr 20234,915
Mar 20234,947
Feb 20234,750
Dec 20224,500
Nov 20224,438
Oct 20224,198
Sept 20224,580
Aug 20224,781
May 20224,500
Apr 20224,000
Mar 20223,875
Feb 20223,604
Jan 20223,550
Oct 20214,000
May 20213,000
Apr 20212,906
Mar 20212,732
Feb 20212,650
Jan 20212,445
Dec 20202,403
Nov 20202,467
Oct 20202,600
Sept 20202,600
Aug 20202,520
Jul 20202,512
Jun 20202,867
Mar 20202,660
Feb 20202,900
Jan 20202,933
Dec 20192,650
Nov 20192,500
Oct 20192,467
Sept 20192,700
Aug 20192,933
Jul 20193,017
Jun 20192,933
May 20192,550
Mar 20192,267
Feb 20192,258
Jan 20192,167
Dec 20182,200
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20182,317
Sept 20182,717
Aug 20182,950
Jul 20183,233
Jun 20183,225
May 20182,683
Apr 20182,375
Feb 20182,133
Jan 20182,217

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2433-62-retail-kg.