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Maize (white) in Gihogazi

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,316–2,202

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,241–2,426

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,316 and 2,202 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,241 and 2,426 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Gihogazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,316 and 2,202 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,241 and 2,426 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,317); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,263–1,652 1,413 1,136–2,187 1,845 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,277–1,836 1,471 1,140–2,985 1,947 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,316–2,202 1,518 1,123–3,924 2,149 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,302–2,308 1,534 1,127–4,902 2,142 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,241–2,426 1,496 1,053–5,317 2,010 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,375
Jun 20261,133
May 20261,354
Apr 20261,100
Mar 2026925
Feb 20261,515
Jan 20261,733
Dec 20251,617
Nov 20251,733
Oct 20251,718
Sept 20251,611
Aug 20251,400
Jul 20251,505
Jun 20251,341
May 20251,123
Apr 20251,018
Mar 20251,116
Feb 20251,383
Jan 20251,953
Dec 20242,109
Nov 20242,273
Oct 20241,888
Sept 20241,688
Aug 20241,600
Jul 20241,300
Jun 20241,307
May 20241,159
Apr 20241,244
Mar 20241,250
Feb 20241,365
Jan 20241,465
Dec 20231,500
Nov 20231,600
Oct 20231,657
Sept 20231,692
Aug 20231,667
Jul 20231,500
Jun 20231,400
May 20231,200
Apr 20231,337
Mar 20231,583
Feb 20231,533
Dec 20221,905
Nov 20221,918
Oct 20221,704
Sept 20221,479
Aug 20221,336
May 2022894
Apr 2022800
Mar 2022750
Feb 2022812
Jan 20221,000
Oct 20211,050
May 2021700
Apr 2021627
Mar 2021699
Feb 2021875
Jan 20211,067
Dec 20201,000
Nov 2020950
Oct 2020750
Sept 2020783
Aug 2020760
Jul 2020638
Jun 2020700
Mar 2020630
Feb 2020600
Jan 20201,133
Dec 20191,150
Oct 2019967
Aug 2019800
Jul 2019825
Jun 2019500
May 2019505
Mar 2019343
Feb 2019575
Jan 2019650
Dec 2018662
Nov 2018642
Oct 2018558
Sept 2018508
Aug 2018562
Jul 2018542
Jun 2018488
May 2018425
Apr 2018344
Feb 2018575
Jan 2018883
Dec 20171,000
Nov 20171,025
Oct 20171,200
Sept 20171,122
Aug 20171,133
Jul 20171,167
Jun 20171,200
May 2017883
Apr 2017850
Mar 2017800
Feb 2017800
Jan 20171,150
Dec 20161,042
Nov 2016962
Oct 2016842

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2433-67-retail-kg.