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Cassava flour in Gihogazi

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

926–1,582

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

916–1,846

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 926 and 1,582 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 916 and 1,846 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gihogazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 15% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 926 and 1,582 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 916 and 1,846 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,079); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 949–1,266 1,122 887–1,429 1,376 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 907–1,363 1,125 806–1,834 1,306 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 926–1,582 1,131 800–2,846 1,458 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 901–1,664 1,129 799–3,345 1,385 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 916–1,846 1,161 776–4,079 1,421 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,070
Jun 20261,167
May 20261,262
Apr 20261,200
Mar 20261,267
Feb 20261,043
Jan 20261,022
Dec 20251,059
Nov 20251,000
Oct 20251,122
Sept 20251,304
Aug 20251,325
Jul 20251,500
Jun 20251,452
May 20251,235
Apr 20251,294
Mar 20251,346
Feb 20251,279
Jan 20251,279
Dec 20241,209
Nov 20241,390
Oct 20241,290
Sept 20241,267
Aug 20241,422
Jul 20241,400
Jun 20241,424
May 20241,500
Apr 20241,522
Mar 20241,500
Feb 20241,552
Jan 20241,500
Dec 20231,500
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20231,532
Sept 20231,500
Aug 20231,533
Jul 20231,550
Jun 20231,533
May 20231,700
Apr 20231,737
Mar 20231,701
Feb 20231,383
Dec 20221,232
Nov 20221,200
Oct 20221,146
Sept 20221,013
Aug 20221,027
May 2022975
Apr 2022967
Mar 2022950
Feb 2022973
Jan 20221,000
Oct 20211,000
May 20211,000
Apr 2021786
Mar 2021777
Feb 2021950
Jan 2021910
Dec 2020761
Nov 2020733
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020585
Aug 2020584
Jul 2020662
Jun 2020667
Mar 2020550
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020600
Dec 2019550
Oct 2019500
Aug 2019492
Jul 2019510
Jun 2019600
May 2019508
Mar 2019450
Feb 2019508
Jan 2019550
Dec 2018510
Nov 2018525
Oct 2018467
Sept 2018533
Aug 2018625
Jul 2018650
Jun 2018588
May 2018633
Apr 2018738
Feb 2018817
Jan 2018967
Dec 2017975
Nov 20171,050
Oct 20171,000
Sept 20171,078
Aug 20171,200
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,200
Apr 20171,200
Mar 20171,040
Feb 20171,100
Jan 20171,017
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016883
Oct 2016742

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2433-74-retail-kg.