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Maize flour in Gihogazi

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,638–2,313

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,561–2,606

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,638 and 2,313 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,561 and 2,606 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gihogazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 13% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,638 and 2,313 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,561 and 2,606 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 4,656); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,602–1,969 1,781 1,489–2,229 2,184 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,604–2,167 1,831 1,439–2,417 2,267 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,638–2,313 1,855 1,419–2,787 2,417 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,620–2,488 1,869 1,387–3,845 2,467 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,561–2,606 1,834 1,298–4,656 2,342 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,775
Jun 20261,550
May 20261,575
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,300
Feb 20261,810
Jan 20261,978
Dec 20251,900
Nov 20251,933
Oct 20251,861
Sept 20251,926
Aug 20251,750
Jul 20251,805
Jun 20251,574
May 20251,518
Apr 20251,536
Mar 20251,474
Feb 20251,686
Jan 20252,353
Dec 20242,441
Nov 20242,558
Oct 20242,258
Sept 20242,220
Aug 20241,800
Jul 20241,525
Jun 20241,657
May 20241,483
Apr 20241,562
Mar 20241,567
Feb 20241,687
Jan 20241,782
Dec 20231,800
Nov 20231,900
Oct 20232,000
Sept 20231,892
Aug 20231,800
Jul 20231,733
Jun 20231,633
May 20231,500
Apr 20231,589
Mar 20231,842
Feb 20231,767
Dec 20222,200
Nov 20222,076
Oct 20221,975
Sept 20221,654
Aug 20221,473
May 20221,062
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022875
Feb 20221,062
Jan 20221,250
Oct 20211,250
May 2021850
Apr 2021769
Mar 2021847
Feb 20211,038
Jan 20211,186
Dec 20201,200
Nov 20201,133
Oct 2020950
Sept 2020991
Aug 2020857
Jul 2020819
Jun 2020850
Mar 2020800
Feb 2020800
Jan 20201,367
Dec 20191,250
Oct 20191,200
Aug 2019950
Jul 20191,000
Jun 2019683
May 2019692
Mar 2019550
Feb 2019783
Jan 2019833
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018775
Oct 2018742
Sept 2018658
Aug 2018738
Jul 2018708
Jun 2018675
May 2018633
Apr 2018588
Feb 2018783
Jan 20181,017
Dec 20171,175
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,300
Sept 20171,244
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,267
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,167
Apr 20171,133
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,000
Jan 20171,275
Dec 20161,225
Nov 20161,022
Oct 2016925

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2433-76-retail-kg.