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Oil (vegetable) in Gihogazi

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,494–19,374

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,158–20,279

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,494 and 19,374 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,158 and 20,279 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gihogazi: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,494 and 19,374 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,158 and 20,279 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,121); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,595–17,777 15,870 13,605–18,615 17,574 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,413–18,730 16,112 13,104–21,945 18,120 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,494–19,374 16,061 12,777–22,222 18,517 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,251–20,254 15,871 12,564–26,121 17,983 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,158–20,279 16,006 13,315–24,102 19,396 –
Price history (90 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202616,500
Jun 202615,500
May 202616,708
Apr 202617,000
Mar 202615,333
Feb 202615,800
Jan 202615,333
Dec 202516,706
Nov 202518,000
Oct 202517,806
Sept 202517,741
Aug 202518,000
Jul 202517,700
Jun 202517,574
May 202517,677
Apr 202517,314
Mar 202515,333
Feb 202515,690
Jan 202514,763
Dec 202413,538
Nov 202414,458
Oct 202414,230
Sept 202413,900
Aug 202411,333
Jul 202411,500
Jun 202412,304
May 202410,157
Apr 202410,531
Mar 20249,083
Feb 20249,287
Jan 20249,382
Dec 20238,500
Nov 202310,000
Oct 202310,273
Sept 20237,923
Aug 20239,667
Jul 20239,083
Jun 20238,500
May 20239,000
Apr 20238,500
Mar 20238,889
Feb 20239,083
Dec 20229,364
Nov 20229,794
Oct 20228,542
Sept 20229,050
Aug 20229,219
May 20228,875
Apr 20228,000
Mar 20228,625
Feb 20228,269
Jan 20228,000
Oct 20216,500
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,572
Mar 20215,634
Feb 20215,650
Jan 20216,041
Dec 20205,611
Nov 20204,933
Oct 20205,250
Sept 20205,234
Aug 20205,023
Jul 20205,062
Jun 20205,167
Mar 20204,900
Feb 20205,000
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20194,750
Nov 20194,667
Oct 20194,833
Sept 20194,700
Aug 20194,833
Jul 20194,617
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,750
Mar 20194,667
Feb 20194,750
Jan 20194,583
Dec 20184,900
Nov 20184,917
Oct 20185,000
Sept 20184,600
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20185,000
Jun 20185,250
May 20184,833
Apr 20184,500
Feb 20184,967
Jan 20185,483

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2433-96-retail-kg.