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Food basket in Gihogazi

Karuzi, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

21,765–32,081

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

21,683–36,908

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 23,325 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 21,765 and 32,081 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 21,683 and 36,908 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gihogazi: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 23,325 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 21,765 and 32,081 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 21,683 and 36,908 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.010,00020,00030,00040,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 63,195); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 22,232–26,956 24,543 21,192–29,248
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 21,562–28,118 24,353 20,014–32,578
Nov 2026
Next month		 21,765–32,081 25,018 20,319–47,521
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 21,627–33,370 25,036 20,073–52,778
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 21,683–36,908 25,737 19,683–63,195
Cost history (88 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202623,325
Jun 202624,895
May 202627,801
Apr 202629,055
Mar 202627,126
Feb 202624,009
Jan 202623,140
Dec 202523,714
Nov 202523,790
Oct 202525,512
Sept 202528,246
Aug 202528,410
Jul 202530,447
Jun 202529,282
May 202526,632
Apr 202528,283
Mar 202529,076
Feb 202526,944
Jan 202526,021
Dec 202424,763
Nov 202426,280
Oct 202424,909
Sept 202424,676
Aug 202425,740
Jul 202424,674
Jun 202425,467
May 202426,953
Apr 202427,837
Mar 202427,044
Feb 202427,388
Jan 202426,412
Dec 202326,460
Nov 202326,640
Oct 202327,191
Sept 202326,818
Aug 202327,247
Jul 202326,666
Jun 202325,125
May 202329,940
Apr 202330,536
Mar 202329,990
Feb 202325,907
Dec 202221,847
Nov 202221,126
Oct 202219,763
Sept 202217,918
Aug 202217,780
May 202217,460
Apr 202217,060
Mar 202216,054
Feb 202216,061
Jan 202216,250
Oct 202116,560
May 202116,770
Apr 202114,103
Mar 202114,074
Feb 202115,974
Jan 202115,068
Dec 202013,411
Nov 202013,232
Oct 202011,694
Sept 202011,120
Aug 202010,937
Jul 202011,506
Jun 202011,778
Mar 202010,883
Feb 202011,901
Jan 202011,384
Dec 201910,364
Oct 20199,562
Aug 20199,559
Jul 20199,894
Jun 201910,154
May 201910,139
Mar 20199,334
Feb 20199,518
Jan 201910,045
Dec 20189,528
Nov 20189,369
Oct 20188,819
Sept 20189,969
Aug 201811,156
Jul 201811,417
Jun 201810,760
May 201810,981
Apr 201812,008
Feb 201812,832
Jan 201814,450

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620