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Oil (palm) in Gitobe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,549–10,915

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,443–11,464

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,549 and 10,915 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,443 and 11,464 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Gitobe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,549 and 10,915 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,443 and 11,464 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 15,437); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,936–9,896 8,686 7,313–10,137 9,985 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,503–10,009 8,316 6,961–12,069 9,557 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,549–10,915 8,429 6,711–15,437 9,428 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,451–11,030 8,594 6,730–13,896 9,639 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,443–11,464 8,737 6,822–14,414 9,992 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20269,000
Jun 20269,306
May 20269,358
Apr 20269,958
Mar 20269,367
Feb 20269,532
Jan 202610,365
Dec 20259,000
Nov 20259,380
Oct 20259,719
Sept 20259,772
Aug 202510,559
Jul 202511,028
Jun 202510,800
May 202510,858
Apr 202510,917
Mar 20259,855
Feb 20259,193
Jan 20256,817
Dec 20246,311
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20245,850
Sept 20245,806
Aug 20246,461
Jul 20246,292
Jun 20246,000
May 20246,056
Apr 20245,567
Mar 20245,383
Feb 20245,617
Jan 20245,367
Dec 20235,533
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20236,333
Sept 20236,633
Aug 20236,500
Jul 20235,394
Jun 20235,485
May 20235,423
Apr 20235,102
Mar 20234,812
Feb 20234,617
Dec 20224,215
Nov 20224,212
Oct 20224,093
Sept 20224,311
Aug 20224,575
Jul 20224,750
May 20224,725
Apr 20223,800
Mar 20223,400
Feb 20223,423
Jan 20222,531
Oct 20213,300
May 20212,900
Apr 20212,727
Mar 20212,500
Feb 20212,467
Jan 20212,500
Dec 20202,309
Nov 20202,167
Sept 20202,283
Aug 20202,470
Jul 20202,539
Jun 20202,572
Mar 20202,520
Feb 20202,400
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,383
Nov 20192,283
Oct 20192,040
Sept 20192,200
Aug 20192,533
Jul 20192,640
Jun 20192,600
May 20192,617
Mar 20192,317
Feb 20192,167
Jan 20192,080
Dec 20182,067
Nov 20182,000
Oct 20181,750
Sept 20182,367
Aug 20183,020
Jul 20183,183
Jun 20183,033
May 20182,640
Apr 20182,343
Mar 20182,250
Feb 20182,500
Jan 20182,160

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2434-62-retail-kg.