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Cassava flour in Gitobe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 23% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

935–1,624

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

921–2,383

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 33% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 935 and 1,624 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 921 and 2,383 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Gitobe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 23% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 33% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 935 and 1,624 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 921 and 2,383 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,362); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 935–1,290 1,106 882–1,390 1,353 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 950–1,475 1,153 839–1,740 1,371 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 935–1,624 1,153 795–2,238 1,504 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 906–1,860 1,165 812–3,401 1,452 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 921–2,383 1,190 796–8,362 1,471 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,000
Jun 20261,444
May 20261,500
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,427
Feb 20261,298
Jan 20261,281
Dec 20251,133
Nov 20251,072
Oct 20251,260
Sept 20251,163
Aug 20251,425
Jul 20251,603
Jun 20251,743
May 20251,545
Apr 20251,417
Mar 20251,451
Feb 20251,265
Jan 20251,183
Dec 20241,308
Nov 20241,248
Oct 20241,192
Sept 20241,011
Aug 20241,022
Jul 20241,233
Jun 20241,425
May 20241,639
Apr 20241,600
Mar 20241,658
Feb 20241,633
Jan 20241,833
Dec 20231,833
Nov 20231,500
Oct 20231,733
Sept 20231,650
Aug 20231,600
Jul 20231,522
Jun 20231,773
May 20231,923
Apr 20231,912
Mar 20231,960
Feb 20231,567
Dec 20221,261
Nov 20221,235
Oct 20221,076
Sept 20221,000
Aug 2022975
Jul 2022950
May 20221,025
Apr 20221,150
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,000
Jan 20221,000
Oct 2021800
May 20211,100
Apr 20211,006
Mar 2021958
Feb 2021950
Jan 2021947
Dec 2020827
Nov 2020817
Sept 2020675
Aug 2020696
Jul 2020679
Jun 2020756
Mar 2020640
Feb 2020608
Jan 2020550
Dec 2019550
Oct 2019500
Aug 2019483
Jul 2019500
Jun 2019550
May 2019500
Mar 2019517
Feb 2019533
Jan 2019510
Dec 2018450
Nov 2018500
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018467
Aug 2018560
Jul 2018600
Jun 2018683
May 2018800
Apr 2018800
Mar 2018800
Feb 2018900
Jan 2018960
Dec 20171,033
Nov 20171,200
Oct 20171,150
Sept 20171,200
Aug 20171,250
Jul 20171,200
Jun 20171,200
May 20171,338
Apr 20171,400
Mar 20171,400
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,067
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016912
Oct 2016800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2434-74-retail-kg.