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Maize flour in Gitobe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,920–2,655

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,778–2,991

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,920 and 2,655 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,778 and 2,991 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Gitobe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 12% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,920 and 2,655 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,778 and 2,991 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,492); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,886–2,185 1,999 1,743–2,584 2,235 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,848–2,348 2,031 1,654–2,885 2,379 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,920–2,655 2,084 1,576–3,853 2,559 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,888–2,767 2,144 1,564–4,325 2,578 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,778–2,991 2,074 1,466–5,492 2,456 –
Price history (104 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20262,050
Jun 20261,844
May 20261,832
Apr 20261,708
Mar 20261,830
Feb 20262,108
Jan 20262,338
Dec 20252,000
Nov 20252,041
Oct 20252,129
Sept 20252,017
Aug 20252,082
Jul 20252,000
Jun 20251,936
May 20251,512
Apr 20251,683
Mar 20251,678
Feb 20251,856
Jan 20252,500
Dec 20242,702
Nov 20242,412
Oct 20242,130
Sept 20242,033
Aug 20241,970
Jul 20241,633
Jun 20241,517
May 20241,506
Apr 20241,533
Mar 20241,650
Feb 20241,567
Jan 20242,100
Dec 20232,200
Nov 20232,200
Oct 20232,050
Sept 20232,067
Aug 20232,000
Jul 20231,806
Jun 20231,767
May 20231,860
Apr 20231,854
Mar 20232,081
Feb 20231,767
Dec 20221,879
Nov 20221,871
Oct 20221,722
Sept 20221,663
Aug 20221,525
Jul 20221,400
May 20221,150
Apr 20221,150
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,065
Jan 20221,288
Oct 20211,200
May 2021900
Apr 2021894
Mar 2021962
Feb 20211,033
Jan 20211,209
Dec 20201,218
Nov 20201,133
Sept 2020900
Aug 2020924
Jul 2020883
Jun 2020817
Mar 2020740
Feb 2020883
Jan 20201,233
Dec 20191,250
Oct 20191,100
Aug 20191,000
Jul 20191,000
Jun 2019700
May 2019700
Mar 2019683
Feb 2019817
Jan 2019800
Dec 2018800
Nov 2018800
Oct 2018717
Sept 2018700
Aug 2018720
Jul 2018725
Jun 2018700
May 2018700
Apr 2018700
Mar 2018675
Feb 20181,000
Jan 2018990
Dec 20171,200
Nov 20171,300
Oct 20171,300
Sept 20171,300
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,300
Jun 20171,300
May 20171,300
Apr 20171,300
Mar 20171,300
Feb 20171,400
Jan 20171,275
Dec 20161,240
Nov 20161,217
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2434-76-retail-kg.