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Oil (vegetable) in Gitobe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,485–20,580

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

12,312–20,340

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 26% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,485 and 20,580 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,312 and 20,340 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Gitobe: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 26% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,485 and 20,580 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 12,312 and 20,340 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,483–17,412 14,253 11,601–18,637 18,332 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,604–19,642 14,767 11,540–22,592 19,180 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,485–20,580 14,571 10,969–24,736 18,264 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,220–21,079 14,589 10,864–21,419 18,338 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 12,312–20,340 14,817 10,882–20,639 19,480 –
Price history (91 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202613,125
Jun 202615,500
May 202617,627
Apr 202618,333
Mar 202613,733
Feb 202615,421
Jan 202615,442
Dec 202516,000
Nov 202517,399
Oct 202517,604
Sept 202518,304
Aug 202517,863
Jul 202517,806
Jun 202517,578
May 202517,850
Apr 202518,333
Mar 202516,978
Feb 202515,860
Jan 202515,833
Dec 202412,839
Nov 202413,588
Oct 202412,612
Sept 202412,528
Aug 202412,148
Jul 202411,417
Jun 202411,792
May 20249,833
Apr 20249,333
Mar 20249,167
Feb 20249,250
Jan 20249,167
Dec 20239,333
Nov 20239,000
Oct 202310,000
Sept 202310,083
Aug 20239,000
Jul 20239,111
Jun 20239,803
May 202310,158
Apr 20239,292
Mar 20239,538
Feb 20239,633
Dec 20229,530
Nov 20229,292
Oct 202210,065
Sept 20229,276
Aug 20229,750
Jul 202210,250
May 20229,375
Apr 20229,500
Mar 20229,250
Feb 20228,769
Jan 20228,938
Oct 20217,100
May 20215,750
Apr 20215,849
Mar 20215,927
Feb 20215,833
Jan 20214,758
Dec 20204,886
Nov 20204,533
Sept 20204,300
Aug 20204,174
Jul 20204,785
Jun 20205,083
Mar 20204,100
Feb 20204,250
Jan 20204,000
Dec 20194,417
Nov 20194,083
Oct 20194,200
Sept 20194,250
Aug 20194,083
Jul 20194,160
Jun 20194,500
May 20194,283
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20194,667
Jan 20194,300
Dec 20184,583
Nov 20184,800
Oct 20184,500
Sept 20184,600
Aug 20184,080
Jul 20184,550
Jun 20184,683
May 20184,400
Apr 20184,371
Mar 20184,000
Feb 20184,000
Jan 20184,800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2434-96-retail-kg.