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Food basket in Gitobe

Kirundo, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

21,353–32,627

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

20,414–44,506

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 22,710 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 21,353 and 32,627 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 20,414 and 44,506 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gitobe: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 22,710 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 21,353 and 32,627 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 20,414 and 44,506 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 102,838); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 21,717–27,009 24,148 20,639–28,902
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 21,429–29,515 24,723 19,792–33,472
Nov 2026
Next month		 21,353–32,627 25,151 19,680–40,098
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 21,116–37,183 25,520 19,858–56,381
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 20,414–44,506 25,029 18,705–102,838
Cost history (89 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202622,710
Jun 202628,064
May 202630,369
Apr 202633,721
Mar 202628,665
Feb 202626,106
Jan 202625,928
Dec 202523,410
Nov 202522,942
Oct 202525,543
Sept 202524,510
Aug 202528,253
Jul 202530,873
Jun 202532,028
May 202529,695
Apr 202528,973
Mar 202528,778
Feb 202525,905
Jan 202522,563
Dec 202426,428
Nov 202424,478
Oct 202423,360
Sept 202420,609
Aug 202420,948
Jul 202422,741
Jun 202424,840
May 202427,245
Apr 202426,521
Mar 202426,914
Feb 202426,715
Jan 202429,183
Dec 202329,238
Nov 202325,755
Oct 202329,790
Sept 202328,637
Aug 202327,705
Jul 202325,319
Jun 202328,352
May 202331,766
Apr 202332,298
Mar 202332,457
Feb 202326,816
Dec 202221,690
Nov 202221,298
Oct 202218,629
Sept 202217,542
Aug 202216,972
Jul 202216,478
May 202217,450
Apr 202219,032
Mar 202215,876
Feb 202215,892
Jan 202215,355
Oct 202113,497
May 202116,641
Apr 202115,637
Mar 202115,179
Feb 202115,412
Jan 202114,857
Dec 202013,762
Nov 202013,875
Sept 202012,046
Aug 202012,274
Jul 202011,854
Jun 202012,522
Mar 202011,471
Feb 202010,726
Jan 20209,816
Dec 201910,164
Oct 20199,100
Aug 20199,198
Jul 20199,592
Jun 20199,744
May 20199,426
Mar 20199,629
Feb 20199,740
Jan 20199,067
Dec 20188,746
Nov 20189,210
Oct 20188,393
Sept 20188,913
Aug 201810,352
Jul 201810,896
Jun 201811,733
May 201812,754
Apr 201812,258
Mar 201812,255
Feb 201813,695
Jan 201814,126

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620