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Oil (palm) in Jene

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,278–9,562

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,167–9,962

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,278 and 9,562 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,167 and 9,962 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Jene: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,278 and 9,562 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,167 and 9,962 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,667–9,548 8,388 7,363–9,846 10,173 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,336–9,390 8,318 6,739–9,465 9,386 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,278–9,562 8,306 6,672–10,310 9,266 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,179–9,791 8,368 6,640–11,189 9,285 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,167–9,962 8,610 6,138–10,238 9,953 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,400
Jul 20269,000
Jun 20269,219
May 20269,167
Apr 20268,750
Mar 20268,750
Feb 20269,175
Jan 20269,000
Dec 20258,000
Nov 20259,543
Oct 202510,588
Sept 202511,087
Aug 202511,333
Jul 202511,769
Jun 202511,469
May 202510,510
Apr 202510,391
Mar 20259,941
Feb 20258,157
Jan 20256,892
Dec 20246,408
Nov 20246,108
Oct 20245,995
Sept 20246,074
Aug 20246,453
Jul 20246,250
Jun 20245,967
May 20245,949
Apr 20245,925
Mar 20245,770
Feb 20245,652
Jan 20246,022
Dec 20235,600
Nov 20235,632
Oct 20236,000
Sept 20236,228
Aug 20235,846
Jul 20235,600
Jun 20235,561
May 20235,483
Apr 20235,115
Mar 20234,971
Feb 20234,712
Dec 20224,724
Nov 20224,739
Oct 20224,276
Sept 20224,791
Aug 20225,000
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,912
Apr 20224,300
Mar 20223,600
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20213,650
May 20213,200
Apr 20212,983
Mar 20212,800
Feb 20212,750
Jan 20212,661
Dec 20202,447
Nov 20202,475
Oct 20202,600
Sept 20202,422
Aug 20202,600
Jul 20202,625
Jun 20202,725
Mar 20202,600
Feb 20202,517
Jan 20202,567
Dec 20192,533
Nov 20192,460
Oct 20192,400
Sept 20192,680
Aug 20192,867
Jul 20192,867
Jun 20192,867
May 20193,067
Mar 20192,500
Feb 20192,333
Jan 20192,400
Dec 20182,400
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20182,200
Sept 20182,933
Aug 20183,550
Jul 20183,350
Jun 20183,267
May 20182,917
Apr 20182,662
Mar 20182,400
Feb 20182,200
Jan 20182,367

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2435-62-retail-kg.