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Oil (vegetable) in Jene

Kayanza, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

12,862–18,671

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

13,004–20,716

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

7%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,862 and 18,671 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,004 and 20,716 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Jene: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 17% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 12,862 and 18,671 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 13,004 and 20,716 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 7%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 13,091–17,553 15,020 11,906–20,244 17,403 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 13,400–18,476 15,201 11,920–20,741 18,305 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 12,862–18,671 14,917 11,015–24,726 16,914 7%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 13,121–19,451 15,338 10,717–20,237 17,909 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 13,004–20,716 15,664 11,215–25,850 19,580 –
Price history (92 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,500
Jul 202616,500
Jun 202614,531
May 202617,500
Apr 202615,500
Mar 202612,312
Feb 202612,900
Jan 202615,500
Dec 202517,250
Nov 202516,174
Oct 202517,500
Sept 202517,609
Aug 202517,833
Jul 202518,000
Jun 202516,688
May 202517,451
Apr 202516,826
Mar 202515,745
Feb 202515,381
Jan 202514,806
Dec 202414,652
Nov 202413,436
Oct 202413,650
Sept 202413,135
Aug 202413,117
Jul 202410,750
Jun 20249,556
May 202410,064
Apr 20249,625
Mar 20249,816
Feb 20248,981
Jan 202411,667
Dec 20239,500
Nov 20239,513
Oct 20239,767
Sept 20239,500
Aug 20239,583
Jul 20238,940
Jun 20239,750
May 20239,808
Apr 20239,260
Mar 202310,578
Feb 20239,396
Dec 20229,576
Nov 20229,176
Oct 20229,747
Sept 20229,210
Aug 20228,719
May 20228,439
Apr 20228,333
Mar 20228,333
Feb 20227,167
Jan 20228,667
Oct 20218,750
May 20215,500
Apr 20215,854
Mar 20215,823
Feb 20216,500
Jan 20215,765
Dec 20205,471
Nov 20204,067
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,856
Aug 20204,971
Jul 20205,092
Jun 20205,188
Mar 20204,617
Feb 20204,617
Jan 20204,567
Dec 20194,333
Nov 20194,600
Oct 20194,417
Sept 20194,300
Aug 20194,417
Jul 20194,417
Jun 20194,667
May 20194,333
Mar 20194,500
Feb 20195,050
Jan 20194,417
Dec 20184,500
Nov 20184,633
Oct 20184,917
Sept 20184,750
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20184,917
Jun 20185,000
May 20185,000
Apr 20184,688
Mar 20185,000
Feb 20184,833
Jan 20185,667

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2435-96-retail-kg.