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Oil (palm) in Kamenge

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,855–9,737

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,562–10,196

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,855 and 9,737 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,562 and 10,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kamenge: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 13% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,855 and 9,737 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,562 and 10,196 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 13,848); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 6,963–9,015 7,764 6,646–9,874 9,351 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,799–9,090 7,747 6,248–11,566 8,762 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,855–9,737 7,809 5,820–12,965 8,958 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,755–9,899 7,818 5,744–13,171 8,876 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,562–10,196 7,901 5,340–13,848 8,891 –
Price history (96 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 20268,500
Aug 20267,824
Jul 20268,250
Jun 20268,354
May 20269,000
Apr 20268,375
Mar 20268,056
Feb 20268,571
Jan 20267,944
Dec 20257,812
Nov 20258,938
Oct 20259,083
Sept 202510,833
Aug 202510,500
Jul 202510,667
Jun 202510,467
May 202510,117
Apr 20259,833
Mar 202510,021
Feb 20258,685
Jan 20257,196
Dec 20246,255
Nov 20245,688
Oct 20245,430
Sept 20245,917
Aug 20246,167
Jul 20246,417
Jun 20246,328
May 20246,000
Apr 20245,344
Mar 20245,000
Feb 20245,000
Jan 20245,000
Dec 20235,500
Nov 20235,000
Oct 20235,733
Sept 20235,708
Aug 20236,432
Jul 20235,981
Jun 20237,667
May 20235,917
Apr 20235,250
Mar 20235,456
Feb 20235,698
Jan 20234,250
Dec 20224,333
Nov 20224,500
Oct 20224,281
Sept 20224,354
Aug 20225,250
Jul 20226,500
Jun 20224,833
May 20225,625
Apr 20223,925
Mar 20224,217
Feb 20223,600
Jan 20223,933
Oct 20213,250
Sept 20213,917
May 20213,250
Apr 20213,115
Mar 20212,897
Feb 20213,033
Jan 20212,930
Dec 20202,618
Nov 20202,550
Oct 20202,500
Sept 20202,477
Aug 20202,371
Jul 20202,932
Jun 20202,819
Mar 20202,783
Feb 20202,617
Jan 20202,250
Dec 20192,583
Nov 20192,950
Oct 20192,667
Sept 20192,533
Aug 20193,000
Jul 20193,167
Jun 20193,000
May 20193,133
Mar 20192,417
Feb 20192,240
Jan 20192,283
Dec 20182,433
Nov 20182,375
Oct 20182,440
Sept 20182,750
Aug 20183,000
Jul 20183,700
Jun 20183,083
May 20183,000
Apr 20182,383
Mar 20182,433
Feb 20182,175

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2436-62-retail-kg.