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Oil (vegetable) in Kamenge

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

11,721–17,529

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

11,412–17,792

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,721 and 17,529 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,412 and 17,792 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kamenge: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,721 and 17,529 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,412 and 17,792 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,196–15,579 13,433 11,607–16,801 16,630 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,073–16,471 13,666 10,896–17,905 17,310 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 11,721–17,529 13,619 10,287–20,522 16,498 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 11,629–17,977 13,855 10,145–18,896 17,035 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 11,412–17,792 13,849 9,842–18,278 17,432 –
Price history (96 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202614,000
Aug 202613,647
Jul 202614,750
Jun 202613,250
May 202613,750
Apr 202613,875
Mar 202613,347
Feb 202612,333
Jan 202612,903
Dec 202512,479
Nov 202513,917
Oct 202515,861
Sept 202516,056
Aug 202516,667
Jul 202518,000
Jun 202516,400
May 202515,933
Apr 202517,500
Mar 202517,708
Feb 202516,714
Jan 202515,706
Dec 202413,990
Nov 202412,781
Oct 202413,420
Sept 202413,333
Aug 202413,667
Jul 202412,833
Jun 202411,766
May 202411,083
Apr 20249,234
Mar 20249,000
Feb 20248,833
Jan 20249,000
Dec 20238,750
Nov 20239,000
Oct 20239,000
Sept 20239,000
Aug 20238,914
Jul 20239,078
Jun 20239,667
May 20238,667
Apr 20238,000
Mar 20238,061
Feb 20238,583
Jan 20238,000
Dec 20228,667
Nov 20228,250
Oct 20228,156
Sept 20227,500
Aug 20228,375
Jul 20229,000
Jun 20229,000
May 20229,250
Apr 20227,375
Mar 20227,333
Feb 20228,000
Jan 20228,167
Oct 20218,500
Sept 20218,583
May 20216,500
Apr 20216,652
Mar 20216,431
Feb 20216,417
Jan 20215,919
Dec 20205,780
Nov 20205,167
Oct 20205,500
Sept 20204,642
Aug 20204,521
Jul 20204,855
Jun 20204,877
Mar 20204,667
Feb 20204,667
Jan 20204,500
Dec 20194,583
Nov 20194,450
Oct 20193,917
Sept 20194,000
Aug 20194,250
Jul 20193,750
Jun 20193,167
May 20193,667
Mar 20193,750
Feb 20194,160
Jan 20193,967
Dec 20184,333
Nov 20184,000
Oct 20184,160
Sept 20183,750
Aug 20184,083
Jul 20184,840
Jun 20184,250
May 20184,500
Apr 20185,167
Mar 20185,167
Feb 20185,125

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burundi-2436-96-retail-kg.