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Oil (palm) in Kanyosha

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

6,874–9,898

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

6,693–10,749

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,874 and 9,898 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,693 and 10,749 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kanyosha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 6,874 and 9,898 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 6,693 and 10,749 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 7,381–9,700 8,408 6,760–10,517 9,905 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 6,844–9,306 7,875 6,397–11,081 8,743 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 6,874–9,898 7,757 5,598–13,432 8,640 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 6,663–10,226 7,827 5,780–13,345 8,816 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 6,693–10,749 8,294 5,616–13,272 9,303 –
Price history (95 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20268,333
Jul 20269,500
Jun 20269,427
May 20269,000
Apr 20268,000
Mar 20267,450
Feb 20267,292
Jan 20267,500
Dec 20257,531
Nov 20259,000
Oct 20258,806
Sept 202510,326
Aug 20259,500
Jul 202511,000
Jun 202510,778
May 202510,319
Apr 20259,802
Mar 20259,292
Feb 20257,857
Jan 20256,566
Dec 20245,602
Nov 20245,444
Oct 20245,822
Sept 20245,600
Aug 20246,197
Jul 20245,944
Jun 20246,125
May 20245,815
Apr 20245,475
Mar 20245,733
Feb 20245,130
Jan 20245,477
Dec 20235,575
Nov 20235,500
Oct 20235,411
Sept 20235,277
Aug 20235,684
Jul 20235,983
Jun 20235,815
May 20235,241
Apr 20235,321
Mar 20235,021
Feb 20235,039
Jan 20235,000
Dec 20224,350
Nov 20224,000
Oct 20224,412
Sept 20225,562
Aug 20225,073
Jun 20225,000
May 20224,688
Apr 20224,150
Mar 20224,267
Feb 20224,100
Jan 20223,433
Oct 20213,000
Sept 20215,167
May 20212,725
Apr 20212,656
Mar 20212,625
Feb 20212,533
Jan 20212,513
Dec 20202,494
Nov 20202,483
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20202,365
Aug 20202,467
Jul 20202,542
Jun 20202,567
Mar 20202,800
Feb 20202,617
Jan 20202,867
Dec 20192,460
Nov 20191,900
Oct 20192,488
Sept 20192,350
Aug 20192,320
Jul 20192,300
Jun 20192,650
May 20192,433
Mar 20192,775
Feb 20191,975
Jan 20192,333
Dec 20182,500
Nov 20182,680
Oct 20182,883
Sept 20182,933
Aug 20182,950
Jul 20183,125
Jun 20183,240
May 20182,575
Apr 20182,833
Mar 20182,250
Feb 20182,125
Jan 20182,050

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2437-62-retail-kg.