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Cassava flour in Kanyosha

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 2% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,485–2,214

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,562–2,411

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,485 and 2,214 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,562 and 2,411 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kanyosha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 2% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 6% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,485 and 2,214 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,562 and 2,411 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,988); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,624–1,920 1,768 1,507–2,100 1,841 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,555–1,992 1,769 1,461–2,344 1,810 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,485–2,214 1,735 1,432–2,702 1,999 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,454–2,411 1,737 1,384–3,988 1,964 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,562–2,411 1,818 1,323–2,665 2,060 –
Price history (108 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,767
Jul 20261,700
Jun 20261,773
May 20261,883
Apr 20261,683
Mar 20261,763
Feb 20261,882
Jan 20261,769
Dec 20251,583
Nov 20251,500
Oct 20251,632
Sept 20251,793
Aug 20251,733
Jul 20251,750
Jun 20251,860
May 20251,917
Apr 20251,854
Mar 20251,833
Feb 20251,843
Jan 20251,900
Dec 20241,841
Nov 20241,691
Oct 20241,500
Sept 20241,470
Aug 20241,509
Jul 20241,715
Jun 20241,419
May 20241,738
Apr 20241,850
Mar 20241,873
Feb 20241,850
Jan 20241,944
Dec 20231,850
Nov 20231,867
Oct 20231,929
Sept 20231,958
Aug 20231,821
Jul 20231,793
Jun 20232,147
May 20232,159
Apr 20232,225
Mar 20232,308
Feb 20231,857
Jan 20231,700
Dec 20221,464
Nov 20221,300
Oct 20221,274
Sept 20221,144
Aug 20221,115
Jun 20221,100
May 20221,202
Apr 20221,205
Mar 20221,167
Feb 20221,200
Jan 20221,200
Oct 20211,200
Sept 20211,000
May 20211,050
Apr 20211,041
Mar 2021949
Feb 20211,033
Jan 2021987
Dec 2020902
Nov 2020967
Oct 2020800
Sept 2020902
Aug 2020878
Jul 2020812
Jun 2020867
Mar 2020933
Feb 2020867
Jan 2020933
Dec 2019730
Oct 2019644
Aug 2019600
Jul 2019617
Jun 2019650
May 2019700
Mar 2019575
Feb 2019588
Jan 2019733
Dec 2018750
Nov 2018720
Oct 2018667
Sept 2018667
Aug 2018638
Jul 2018775
Jun 2018780
May 2018975
Apr 2018892
Mar 2018800
Feb 20181,000
Jan 20181,025
Dec 20171,200
Nov 20171,250
Oct 20171,250
Sept 20171,250
Aug 20171,300
Jul 20171,400
Jun 20171,400
May 20171,400
Apr 20171,150
Mar 20171,250
Feb 20171,250
Jan 20171,100
Dec 20161,075
Nov 20161,025
Oct 2016900

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2437-74-retail-kg.