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Oil (vegetable) in Kanyosha

Bujumbura Mairie, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

11,781–17,119

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

11,908–17,643

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,781 and 17,119 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,908 and 17,643 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kanyosha: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 11,781 and 17,119 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 11,908 and 17,643 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 12,654–15,817 13,636 12,010–16,147 16,914 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 12,201–16,066 13,715 11,421–17,570 16,384 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 11,781–17,119 13,464 10,209–20,716 15,843 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 12,005–17,765 13,630 10,518–20,419 16,568 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 11,908–17,643 13,982 10,781–17,696 18,404 –
Price history (95 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202614,000
Jul 202614,000
Jun 202613,854
May 202614,000
Apr 202614,000
Mar 202613,211
Feb 202612,357
Jan 202612,784
Dec 202512,740
Nov 202514,083
Oct 202515,258
Sept 202516,761
Aug 202515,500
Jul 202515,250
Jun 202516,244
May 202516,083
Apr 202517,271
Mar 202516,438
Feb 202515,238
Jan 202514,727
Dec 202412,788
Nov 202411,469
Oct 202411,944
Sept 202411,900
Aug 202412,861
Jul 202410,742
Jun 202411,167
May 20249,327
Apr 20248,750
Mar 20248,720
Feb 20248,383
Jan 20248,610
Dec 20238,575
Nov 20238,667
Oct 20238,702
Sept 20238,683
Aug 20238,250
Jul 20239,467
Jun 20238,427
May 20238,437
Apr 20238,344
Mar 20238,223
Feb 20238,122
Jan 20238,100
Dec 20228,455
Nov 20228,026
Oct 20227,553
Sept 20228,038
Aug 20228,029
Jun 20229,000
May 20227,571
Apr 20227,250
Mar 20227,467
Feb 20227,500
Jan 20227,067
Oct 20217,500
Sept 20218,067
May 20215,975
Apr 20216,073
Mar 20215,731
Feb 20215,500
Jan 20215,301
Dec 20205,513
Nov 20205,017
Oct 20203,500
Sept 20204,142
Aug 20204,543
Jul 20204,394
Jun 20204,633
Mar 20204,867
Feb 20204,767
Jan 20204,833
Dec 20194,250
Nov 20193,150
Oct 20193,888
Sept 20193,583
Aug 20193,820
Jul 20193,550
Jun 20193,500
May 20193,167
Mar 20194,000
Feb 20194,033
Jan 20193,733
Dec 20183,300
Nov 20183,760
Oct 20184,350
Sept 20184,117
Aug 20183,625
Jul 20184,200
Jun 20183,880
May 20183,500
Apr 20183,783
Mar 20183,500
Feb 20183,575
Jan 20185,000

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2437-96-retail-kg.