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Oil (palm) in Kayero

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 6% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

8,540–12,425

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

8,571–13,897

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

8%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,540 and 12,425 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,571 and 13,897 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kayero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 6% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 8,540 and 12,425 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 8,571 and 13,897 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 8%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,00020,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 9,653–11,928 10,580 9,040–12,690 11,520 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 8,863–12,015 10,208 8,522–13,227 10,958 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 8,540–12,425 10,029 8,310–15,550 10,462 8%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 8,536–12,753 10,085 7,537–15,822 10,704 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 8,571–13,897 10,503 7,605–17,157 11,488 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202611,000
Jun 202610,111
May 202611,520
Apr 202611,400
Mar 20269,789
Feb 202610,802
Jan 202610,486
Dec 202511,514
Nov 202510,469
Oct 202510,854
Sept 202510,729
Aug 202511,700
Jul 202512,647
Jun 202511,573
May 202510,681
Apr 202511,825
Mar 202510,467
Feb 20258,222
Jan 20257,164
Dec 20246,791
Nov 20246,329
Oct 20246,235
Sept 20246,344
Aug 20246,400
Jul 20246,735
Jun 20245,972
May 20246,514
Apr 20246,850
Mar 20245,387
Feb 20245,142
Jan 20245,822
Nov 20235,600
Oct 20237,896
Sept 20236,592
Aug 20236,500
Jul 20236,683
Jun 20236,018
May 20235,840
Apr 20236,750
Mar 20235,375
Feb 20235,900
Dec 20224,503
Nov 20224,777
Oct 20225,356
Sept 20225,750
Aug 20225,617
Jun 20225,000
May 20225,041
Apr 20224,300
Mar 20224,200
Feb 20224,000
Jan 20223,633
May 20212,700
Apr 20212,775
Mar 20212,504
Feb 20212,533
Jan 20213,175
Dec 20202,437
Nov 20202,569
Oct 20202,400
Sept 20202,423
Aug 20202,290
Jul 20202,529
Jun 20202,578
Mar 20202,500
Feb 20202,520
Jan 20202,400
Dec 20192,460
Nov 20192,383
Oct 20192,250
Sept 20192,440
Aug 20192,717
Jul 20192,640
Jun 20192,700
May 20192,740
Mar 20192,333
Feb 20192,433
Jan 20192,200
Dec 20182,200
Nov 20182,100
Oct 20182,040
Sept 20182,933
Aug 20183,167
Jul 20183,300
Jun 20183,420
May 20182,900
Apr 20182,800
Mar 20182,800
Jan 20182,400

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2438-62-retail-kg.