Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Cassava flour in Kayero

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,341–2,150

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,310–2,477

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 19% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,341 and 2,150 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,310 and 2,477 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kayero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 19% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,341 and 2,150 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,310 and 2,477 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 5,073); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,423–1,878 1,636 1,262–2,206 1,902 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,298–1,901 1,581 1,145–2,789 1,694 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,341–2,150 1,602 1,161–3,157 1,848 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,332–2,287 1,632 1,191–4,063 1,800 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,310–2,477 1,637 1,121–5,073 1,848 –
Price history (101 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,550
Jun 20261,467
May 20261,914
Apr 20261,870
Mar 20261,596
Feb 20261,756
Jan 20261,722
Dec 20251,511
Nov 20251,635
Oct 20251,831
Sept 20251,743
Aug 20251,760
Jul 20251,682
Jun 20251,685
May 20251,623
Apr 20251,813
Mar 20251,863
Feb 20251,843
Jan 20251,755
Dec 20241,903
Nov 20241,690
Oct 20241,718
Sept 20241,932
Aug 20241,468
Jul 20241,719
Jun 20241,402
May 20241,597
Apr 20241,700
Mar 20241,846
Feb 20241,782
Jan 20241,787
Nov 20231,600
Oct 20231,846
Sept 20231,835
Aug 20232,000
Jul 20231,667
Jun 20231,500
May 20231,710
Apr 20231,625
Mar 20231,550
Feb 20231,506
Dec 20221,324
Nov 20221,367
Oct 20221,015
Sept 2022971
Aug 20221,017
Jun 20221,000
May 2022876
Apr 20221,000
Mar 2022833
Feb 20221,033
Jan 20221,000
May 2021800
Apr 2021850
Mar 2021738
Feb 2021867
Jan 2021700
Dec 2020677
Nov 2020646
Oct 2020550
Sept 2020591
Aug 2020600
Jul 2020579
Jun 2020556
Mar 2020562
Feb 2020600
Jan 2020567
Dec 2019450
Oct 2019492
Aug 2019533
Jul 2019440
Jun 2019633
May 2019620
Mar 2019667
Feb 2019633
Jan 2019583
Dec 2018650
Nov 2018583
Oct 2018450
Sept 2018767
Aug 2018850
Jul 2018700
Jun 2018820
May 2018725
Apr 20181,000
Mar 20181,100
Jan 2018900
Dec 20171,000
Oct 20171,000
Sept 20171,000
Aug 20171,000
Jul 20171,050
Jun 20171,100
May 20171,050
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,200
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016880
Oct 2016800

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2438-74-retail-kg.