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Maize flour in Kayero

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

1,653–2,610

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

1,608–2,659

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,653 and 2,610 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,608 and 2,659 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize flour, Kayero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 14% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 140 markets in Burundi, the median price rose 7% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 1,653 and 2,610 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 1,608 and 2,659 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).01,0002,0003,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 3,800); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,614–2,098 1,822 1,481–2,454 2,427 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 1,628–2,331 1,891 1,420–2,626 2,521 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 1,653–2,610 1,911 1,384–3,800 2,650 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 1,666–2,569 1,967 1,431–2,917 2,732 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 1,608–2,659 1,932 1,385–3,294 2,720 –
Price history (101 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,650
Jun 20261,889
May 20261,922
Apr 20261,725
Mar 20262,364
Feb 20262,463
Jan 20262,384
Dec 20252,057
Nov 20252,073
Oct 20252,131
Sept 20252,000
Aug 20252,000
Jul 20251,959
Jun 20251,994
May 20251,954
Apr 20252,147
Mar 20251,897
Feb 20252,602
Jan 20252,652
Dec 20242,622
Nov 20242,488
Oct 20242,353
Sept 20242,446
Aug 20242,129
Jul 20242,117
Jun 20241,927
May 20241,840
Apr 20241,900
Mar 20242,018
Feb 20242,073
Jan 20242,226
Nov 20232,050
Oct 20232,225
Sept 20232,185
Aug 20232,200
Jul 20232,050
Jun 20231,964
May 20231,970
Apr 20231,875
Mar 20232,142
Feb 20232,200
Dec 20222,048
Nov 20222,040
Oct 20221,535
Sept 20221,521
Aug 20221,417
Jun 20221,150
May 20221,129
Apr 20221,033
Mar 20221,000
Feb 20221,400
Jan 20221,250
May 20211,000
Apr 2021928
Mar 2021975
Feb 20211,144
Jan 20211,075
Dec 20201,107
Nov 20201,052
Oct 20201,000
Sept 2020938
Aug 20201,055
Jul 2020906
Jun 2020931
Mar 20201,000
Feb 20201,133
Jan 20201,200
Dec 20191,180
Oct 2019980
Aug 2019850
Jul 2019960
Jun 2019750
May 2019733
Mar 20191,067
Feb 2019962
Jan 20191,000
Dec 2018983
Nov 2018900
Oct 2018860
Sept 2018867
Aug 2018858
Jul 2018933
Jun 2018860
May 2018725
Apr 2018800
Mar 2018800
Jan 20181,200
Dec 20171,200
Oct 20171,350
Sept 20171,167
Aug 20171,100
Jul 20171,100
Jun 20171,150
May 20171,000
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,000
Feb 20171,300
Jan 20171,400
Dec 20161,300
Nov 20161,260
Oct 20161,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2438-76-retail-kg.