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Oil (vegetable) in Kayero

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 3% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

15,534–23,271

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

16,665–24,838

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

12%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 3% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,534 and 23,271 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 16,665 and 24,838 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kayero: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 3% above the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 15,534 and 23,271 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 16,665 and 24,838 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 12%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 36,687); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 17,192–21,787 19,383 15,886–24,484 20,144 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 16,770–22,758 19,371 14,879–30,265 20,189 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 15,534–23,271 18,547 15,165–31,722 19,069 12%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 16,512–24,633 18,820 15,043–36,687 20,232 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 16,665–24,838 18,774 14,156–34,194 21,547 –
Price history (89 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202620,500
Jun 202618,889
May 202619,784
Apr 202618,200
Mar 202617,962
Feb 202620,175
Jan 202619,944
Dec 202518,514
Nov 202517,979
Oct 202520,740
Sept 202521,422
Aug 202517,550
Jul 202514,941
Jun 202516,854
May 202518,327
Apr 202518,467
Mar 202517,600
Feb 202515,714
Jan 202515,240
Dec 202413,828
Nov 202414,297
Oct 202413,765
Sept 202413,620
Aug 202412,253
Jul 202411,310
Jun 20249,898
May 20249,917
Apr 20249,250
Mar 202410,142
Feb 20249,511
Jan 20249,706
Nov 20239,250
Oct 202310,333
Sept 20239,885
Aug 20239,500
Jul 20238,750
Jun 20239,500
May 20239,500
Apr 20239,500
Mar 20239,000
Feb 20239,000
Dec 20229,121
Nov 20229,100
Oct 20228,938
Sept 20229,083
Aug 20229,000
Jun 20228,750
May 20228,625
Apr 20228,500
Mar 20228,083
Feb 20227,167
Jan 20227,833
May 20215,250
Apr 20215,253
Mar 20215,292
Feb 20215,389
Jan 20215,500
Dec 20205,142
Nov 20204,811
Oct 20205,000
Sept 20204,756
Aug 20205,285
Jul 20204,853
Jun 20204,872
Mar 20204,650
Feb 20204,420
Jan 20204,567
Dec 20194,640
Nov 20193,750
Oct 20194,333
Sept 20194,600
Aug 20194,500
Jul 20194,400
Jun 20194,333
May 20194,400
Mar 20194,333
Feb 20194,375
Jan 20194,417
Dec 20184,250
Nov 20184,417
Oct 20184,500
Sept 20184,417
Aug 20185,000
Jul 20184,833
Jun 20184,600
May 20184,750
Apr 20186,000
Mar 20183,500
Jan 20184,500

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2438-96-retail-kg.