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Food basket in Kayero

Rutana, Burundi · BIF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 L Oil (palm).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

28,310–39,642

BIF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

27,832–45,162

BIF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,680 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,310 and 39,642 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,832 and 45,162 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kayero: BIF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Cassava flour, 1.8 kg Beans (haricot, yellow), 0.75 l Oil (palm)) cost about 31,680 BIF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 28,310 and 39,642 BIF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 27,832 and 45,162 BIF (8 in 10 chance). This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.020,00040,00060,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

BIF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 78,929); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 29,500–36,243 32,769 27,434–40,439
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 28,146–37,617 32,150 25,806–48,397
Nov 2026
Next month		 28,310–39,642 32,350 26,061–52,354
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 28,354–42,282 33,146 26,109–58,701
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 27,832–45,162 33,262 24,784–78,929
Cost history (87 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (BIF per person per month)
MonthCost
Aug 202631,680
Jun 202630,217
May 202637,432
Apr 202637,866
Mar 202631,191
Feb 202633,728
Jan 202632,948
Dec 202530,950
Nov 202531,116
Oct 202534,606
Sept 202533,071
Aug 202533,639
Jul 202533,113
Jun 202532,185
May 202531,856
Apr 202535,172
Mar 202535,618
Feb 202533,423
Jan 202531,668
Dec 202433,896
Nov 202430,788
Oct 202430,886
Sept 202433,245
Aug 202426,930
Jul 202429,825
Jun 202424,913
May 202428,311
Apr 202431,426
Mar 202431,669
Feb 202429,519
Jan 202429,932
Nov 202327,519
Oct 202332,233
Sept 202331,417
Aug 202332,985
Jul 202328,272
Jun 202325,556
May 202330,004
Apr 202329,782
Mar 202327,439
Feb 202326,961
Dec 202223,533
Nov 202223,842
Oct 202219,070
Sept 202218,160
Aug 202218,536
Jun 202217,700
May 202216,343
Apr 202217,607
Mar 202214,593
Feb 202216,930
Jan 202216,247
May 202114,073
Apr 202114,826
Mar 202113,330
Feb 202114,608
Jan 202112,931
Dec 202012,999
Nov 202012,605
Oct 202011,046
Sept 202011,364
Aug 202011,363
Jul 202010,768
Jun 202010,473
Mar 202011,085
Feb 202011,171
Jan 202010,496
Dec 20199,041
Oct 20199,373
Aug 20199,909
Jul 20199,046
Jun 201910,663
May 201911,167
Mar 201911,860
Feb 201911,049
Jan 201910,303
Dec 201811,748
Nov 201810,609
Oct 20188,860
Sept 201812,979
Aug 201813,975
Jul 201812,177
Jun 201813,694
May 201812,231
Apr 201815,732
Mar 201816,752
Jan 201814,256

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burundi

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 81% 94% 5% 1,874
Estimate (this month) 79% 93% 8% 1,810
Next month 78% 92% 10% 1,746
In 2 months 77% 91% 11% 1,683
In 3 months 78% 91% 13% 1,620