Staple Signals Français

Home › Burundi

Oil (palm) in Kayogoro

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 7% above the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

7,738–12,715

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

7,696–14,053

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

20%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 35% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,738 and 12,715 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,696 and 14,053 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (palm), Kayogoro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). It rose 35% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 7,738 and 12,715 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 7,696 and 14,053 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 20%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05,00010,00015,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 22,875); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 8,670–11,958 10,026 7,690–13,416 10,304 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 7,733–11,915 9,185 7,214–13,892 8,705 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 7,738–12,715 9,356 6,840–16,303 9,424 20%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 7,619–12,974 9,361 6,927–16,292 9,596 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 7,696–14,053 9,654 6,826–22,875 10,315 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202612,111
Jul 20269,000
Jun 20269,000
May 20269,000
Apr 20268,500
Mar 202610,010
Feb 20269,513
Jan 20268,955
Dec 20258,734
Nov 20258,736
Oct 20258,743
Sept 20259,781
Aug 202510,667
Jul 202511,667
Jun 202511,000
May 20259,939
Apr 202510,719
Mar 20259,822
Feb 20259,160
Jan 20257,809
Dec 20246,233
Nov 20246,000
Oct 20245,208
Sept 20246,594
Aug 20246,481
Jul 20246,375
Jun 20246,281
May 20246,078
Apr 20245,481
Mar 20245,554
Feb 20245,417
Jan 20245,750
Dec 20235,750
Nov 20235,300
Oct 20235,348
Sept 20236,062
Aug 20236,000
Jul 20236,433
Jun 20236,455
May 20236,112
Apr 20235,554
Mar 20234,810
Feb 20234,778
Dec 20224,306
Nov 20224,500
Oct 20224,715
Sept 20224,724
Aug 20225,292
Jul 20225,000
May 20224,720
Apr 20224,433
Mar 20223,536
Feb 20223,500
Jan 20223,600
Oct 20213,000
May 20212,733
Apr 20212,675
Mar 20212,500
Feb 20212,461
Jan 20212,400
Dec 20202,450
Nov 20202,400
Oct 20202,000
Sept 20202,509
Aug 20202,353
Jul 20202,403
Jun 20202,456
Mar 20203,333
Feb 20202,460
Jan 20202,350
Dec 20192,325
Nov 20192,220
Oct 20191,933
Sept 20192,167
Aug 20192,900
Jul 20192,950
Jun 20192,767
May 20192,920
Mar 20192,150
Feb 20192,567
Jan 20192,133
Dec 20181,920
Nov 20181,950
Oct 20181,783
Sept 20182,417
Aug 20182,967
Jul 20183,275
Jun 20183,100
May 20182,667
Apr 20182,150
Mar 20182,250
Feb 20181,900
Jan 20181,940

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2439-62-retail-kg.