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Cassava flour in Kayogoro

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

982–1,587

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

997–1,756

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 18% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 982 and 1,587 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 997 and 1,756 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Cassava flour, Kayogoro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 18% over the 3 months before. For cassava, across 70 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 8% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 982 and 1,587 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 997 and 1,756 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).05001,0001,5002,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 2,356); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 1,006–1,324 1,161 911–1,564 1,550 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 990–1,433 1,169 829–1,666 1,465 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 982–1,587 1,195 855–2,356 1,726 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 983–1,693 1,224 875–2,170 1,712 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 997–1,756 1,234 849–2,162 1,673 –
Price history (103 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 20261,078
Jul 20261,000
Jun 20261,250
May 20261,311
Apr 20261,500
Mar 20261,579
Feb 20261,492
Jan 20261,191
Dec 20251,181
Nov 20251,031
Oct 20251,138
Sept 20251,250
Aug 20251,100
Jul 20251,367
Jun 20251,550
May 20251,464
Apr 20251,496
Mar 20251,422
Feb 20251,448
Jan 20251,372
Dec 20241,441
Nov 20241,469
Oct 20241,208
Sept 20241,174
Aug 20241,158
Jul 20241,375
Jun 20241,456
May 20241,444
Apr 20241,463
Mar 20241,513
Feb 20241,592
Jan 20241,825
Dec 20231,667
Nov 20231,650
Oct 20231,697
Sept 20231,677
Aug 20231,550
Jul 20231,517
Jun 20231,741
May 20231,830
Apr 20231,873
Mar 20232,047
Feb 20231,694
Dec 20221,400
Nov 20221,295
Oct 20221,069
Sept 2022956
Aug 2022983
Jul 2022800
May 2022903
Apr 2022900
Mar 2022964
Feb 2022912
Jan 2022933
Oct 2021800
May 2021783
Apr 2021748
Mar 2021721
Feb 2021750
Jan 2021750
Dec 2020750
Nov 2020717
Oct 2020600
Sept 2020600
Aug 2020552
Jul 2020514
Jun 2020533
Mar 2020483
Feb 2020470
Jan 2020400
Dec 2019475
Oct 2019317
Aug 2019340
Jul 2019392
Jun 2019433
May 2019410
Mar 2019412
Feb 2019517
Jan 2019467
Dec 2018470
Nov 2018375
Oct 2018417
Sept 2018417
Aug 2018467
Jul 2018475
Jun 2018620
May 2018625
Apr 2018762
Mar 2018750
Feb 2018600
Jan 2018900
Dec 2017725
Nov 2017900
Oct 2017900
Sept 2017925
May 20171,000
Apr 20171,000
Mar 20171,100
Feb 20171,000
Jan 20171,000
Dec 20161,000
Nov 2016838
Oct 2016700

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2439-74-retail-kg.