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Oil (vegetable) in Kayogoro

Makamba, Burundi · BIF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

14,687–20,172

BIF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

14,298–20,764

BIF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

6%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,687 and 20,172 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,298 and 20,764 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Oil (vegetable), Kayogoro: BIF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For cooking oil, across 137 markets in Burundi, the median price fell 3% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 14,687 and 20,172 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 14,298 and 20,764 BIF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 6%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).010,00020,00030,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

BIF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 26,194); see the table.

Forecast table (BIF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 14,795–18,760 16,377 14,153–19,502 19,078 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 14,767–19,155 16,367 13,776–21,698 19,026 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 14,687–20,172 16,270 13,281–24,915 18,724 6%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 14,379–20,670 16,300 12,831–25,843 18,832 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 14,298–20,764 16,263 12,630–26,194 19,468 –
Price history (93 months, latest first)
Observed prices (BIF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Aug 202617,333
Jul 202615,000
Jun 202618,250
May 202617,889
Apr 202618,500
Mar 202617,698
Feb 202615,667
Jan 202616,727
Dec 202516,532
Nov 202517,326
Oct 202517,574
Sept 202519,312
Aug 202518,000
Jul 202517,667
Jun 202519,000
May 202517,561
Apr 202517,646
Mar 202517,222
Feb 202514,865
Jan 202514,807
Dec 202415,400
Nov 202415,077
Oct 202413,750
Sept 202414,000
Aug 202413,462
Jul 202413,250
Jun 202410,125
May 202410,515
Apr 20249,907
Mar 202410,015
Feb 20249,500
Jan 20249,750
Dec 202310,583
Nov 202310,000
Oct 20239,594
Sept 20239,885
Aug 202310,250
Jul 202310,000
Jun 20239,841
May 202310,000
Apr 20239,344
Mar 20239,839
Feb 202310,750
Dec 20229,903
Nov 20229,650
Oct 20229,677
Sept 20229,927
Aug 20229,438
Jul 20229,000
May 20228,697
Apr 20229,333
Mar 20228,859
Feb 20229,812
Jan 20228,333
Oct 20219,000
May 20216,000
Apr 20215,979
Mar 20216,088
Feb 20215,478
Jan 20215,500
Dec 20205,000
Nov 20205,083
Oct 20205,500
Sept 20205,065
Aug 20205,700
Jul 20205,194
Jun 20205,111
Mar 20205,000
Feb 20205,000
Jan 20205,000
Dec 20195,000
Nov 20194,900
Oct 20194,917
Sept 20194,917
Aug 20195,000
Jul 20195,000
Jun 20195,000
May 20195,000
Mar 20195,000
Feb 20194,917
Jan 20194,750
Dec 20184,900
Nov 20185,000
Oct 20185,000
Sept 20185,417
Aug 20184,833
Jul 20185,000
Jun 20185,000
May 20184,833
Apr 20184,875
Mar 20185,250
Feb 20185,500
Jan 20185,100

Track record in Burundi

How past forecasts for Burundi did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burundi
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 79% 94% 6% better than the base rate 16,758
Estimate (this month) 78% 94% 9% better than the base rate 16,545
Next month 76% 93% 11% better than the base rate 16,316
In 2 months 74% 93% 14% no better than the base rate 16,060
In 3 months 73% 92% 17% worse than the base rate 15,769

Last observed: August 2026. Series id: burundi-2439-96-retail-kg.